TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Elena Micic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eva Vedderof Eva Vedder, Elena Micic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,891

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f65…2036backed Elena Micic32c84,217$26,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,889.1374439.8%296 W · 448 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…b1dfbacked Eva Vedder69c23,836$16,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,393.022,38355.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L+49.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c50…e0c9backed Elena Micic44c11,420$5,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,004.7942131.6%133 W · 288 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Eva Vedder68c11,405$7,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,596.221,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Eva Vedder64c10,105$6,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,608.494,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Eva Vedder56c8,207$4,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,610.434,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Eva Vedder71c5,815$4,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.436,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Elena Micic4c4,704$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.138,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Eva Vedder68c4,444$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.9710751.4%55 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7568…2ce1backed Elena Micic39c2,504$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.859052.2%47 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Eva Vedder64c2,434$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.774,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Eva Vedder75c2,221$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.673,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Eva Vedder67c1,794$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.45,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Eva Vedder67c1,595$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.692,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b6c…d56cbacked Eva Vedder76c1,289$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.4724451.6%126 W · 118 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3054…055bbacked Eva Vedder71c1,268$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.6113752.6%72 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Eva Vedder67c1,243$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.286,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Elena Micic1c1,166$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.122,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Eva Vedder71c1,110$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.011,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Eva Vedder72c1,036$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.527374%54 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Eva Vedder78c902.98$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.131,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Eva Vedder69c752.35$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.488,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d74…f2abbacked Elena Micic34c708.24$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24043334.9%151 W · 282 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Eva Vedder74c649.22$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.374,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4702…5d04backed Elena Micic22c632.95$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.778937.1%33 W · 56 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Elena Micic25c596.76$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1948214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Elena Micic24c585.91$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.595,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Elena Micic31c565.12$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9763144.1%278 W · 353 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Eva Vedder65c530.51$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.751,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked Eva Vedder70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1506553.8%35 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Eva Vedder75c479.05$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.432,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…3540backed Eva Vedder47c465.75$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.5610742.1%45 W · 62 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Eva Vedder71c412.44$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.611,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed Eva Vedder75c372.12$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.033966.7%26 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Eva Vedder73c346.82$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.481,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Eva Vedder64c300$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.565346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Eva Vedder73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9743552.9%230 W · 205 L+0.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Eva Vedder68c260$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0792046.6%429 W · 491 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Eva Vedder66c254.05$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4565259.4%387 W · 265 L+31.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Eva Vedder60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6c5c…91fcbacked Elena Micic40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10044751.7%231 W · 216 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2b…2a8ebacked Eva Vedder50c237.83$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.327847.4%37 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cd2…87f4backed Eva Vedder50c227$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3315838%60 W · 98 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70cf…1b41backed Eva Vedder50c227$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.339044.4%40 W · 50 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Eva Vedder53c221$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1548738.4%187 W · 300 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Eva Vedder54c207.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2130040%120 W · 180 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Eva Vedder73c205.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4840350.6%204 W · 199 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02da…070dbacked Eva Vedder52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Eva Vedder71c197$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1372755.6%404 W · 323 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Eva Vedder71c193.65$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1655149.7%274 W · 277 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Elena Micic35c192.06$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.631,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Eva Vedder73c188.86$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.655,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Elena Micic26c186.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4831220.5%64 W · 248 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Eva Vedder71c169.01$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.011,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b35…51b3backed Eva Vedder71c167.37$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6435360.9%215 W · 138 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Eva Vedder56c164$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.161,82241%747 W · 1,075 L-30.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6be…a9a7backed Elena Micic22c163.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3613441.8%56 W · 78 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Eva Vedder69c159.64$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2128048.9%137 W · 143 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5bd…226cbacked Eva Vedder52c148.35$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5915340.5%62 W · 91 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Eva Vedder66c143.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.646,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Eva Vedder71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8587854.7%480 W · 398 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Eva Vedder71c138$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0227353.1%145 W · 128 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1112…90dbbacked Elena Micic16c128.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015141.1%62 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b2…1cbfbacked Elena Micic40c126.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503852.6%20 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Eva Vedder73c120$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.47,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Eva Vedder71c116.31$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7328264.2%181 W · 101 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Eva Vedder71c116.3$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7326849.3%132 W · 136 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Eva Vedder75c113.66$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.266834.3%229 W · 439 L-43.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0a3…a25ebacked Elena Micic35c113.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa781…8745backed Eva Vedder54c107$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8611942%50 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Eva Vedder73c98.42$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.741,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff7…d9d4backed Elena Micic21c95.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025020.8%52 W · 198 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x449f…2d2ebacked Elena Micic32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025447.6%121 W · 133 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Eva Vedder71c93.04$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9834957.9%202 W · 147 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8546…35b8backed Eva Vedder78c91.3$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0920860.6%126 W · 82 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c15…3833backed Eva Vedder71c84.51$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d8…400bbacked Elena Micic24c84.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4934627.7%96 W · 250 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad5…ccdebacked Elena Micic25c81.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2855032.7%180 W · 370 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccb…6cb3backed Eva Vedder56c72.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.715435.2%19 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7629…ef05backed Eva Vedder70c71.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5737262.9%234 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Eva Vedder70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4396049.5%475 W · 485 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c3…fd98backed Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.429354.8%51 W · 42 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e48…828fbacked Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.427352.1%38 W · 35 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa245…48f7backed Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.426753.7%36 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda42…ba30backed Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.427653.9%41 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4275350.5%380 W · 373 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4292355.8%515 W · 408 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4294255.8%526 W · 416 L+19.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4228557.9%165 W · 120 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4249056.9%279 W · 211 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc06b…76ddbacked Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.428050%40 W · 40 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa2e…9d98backed Eva Vedder71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.427361.6%45 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Elena Micic33c65.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba17…5c67backed Eva Vedder71c58.15$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.869350.5%47 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Eva Vedder75c58.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Eva Vedder72c57.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8844465.3%290 W · 154 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbf…49c1backed Eva Vedder71c56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2414852%77 W · 71 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x029e…b19cbacked Eva Vedder52c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.411644%51 W · 65 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Eva Vedder70c52.83$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6289663.7%571 W · 325 L+63.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Eva Vedder66c51.39$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.691,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.