Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by 70% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c40093113e61dd6fb279902194ad7cfe0077275c16f427f814e2706d8f98c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Yes | 15c | 13,569$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 47c | 3,843$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.79 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 2,053$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.55 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 73c | 1,163$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 74c | 1,142$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604f…9137backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 27c | 1,020$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 28c | 702.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.83 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 26c | 651$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.42 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 4c | 603.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 54c | 592.9$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 57c | 300$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 261.62$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…7cc8backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked No | 32c | 158.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae5…3d88backed Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 61c | 118.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 105$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…7f2fbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…b178backed No | 40c | 93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +335.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 30c | 85.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 24c | 74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 31c | 71.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 45c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…1643backed No | 29c | 51.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +246.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 62c | 51.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e1…c7eabacked No | 36c | 37.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +132%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…0508backed Yes | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by 70% or more?this page
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 50% and 60%?No won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 60% and 70%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.