Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 60% and 70%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad8613281641da266d7ef864fea2615ad380158efe584a87ee7a7c3f333998fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x246b…1196backed Yes | 18c | 1,534$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 1,300$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…b178backed Yes | 16c | 930.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +335.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 43c | 600.06$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 599.97$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.98 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 35c | 506.71$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.63 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 7c | 473$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 25c | 441$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.37 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 261.62$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 221.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…ae31backed Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 28c | 187.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 78c | 120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 11c | 104.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 43c | 102.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 40c | 75.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604f…9137backed No | 69c | 46.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 41.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…1081backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 39c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 34.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…11ffbacked No | 70c | 21.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 60% and 70%?this page
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by 70% or more?No won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 50% and 60%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.