TailMyPicks

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College Football · resolved market

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas Tech Red Raidersof Texas Tech Red Raiders, Kansas State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$283,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$293,609

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc996…bb65backed Kansas State16c62,712$10,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,284.1827648.9%135 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Texas Tech Red Raiders59c51,276$30,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,958.3668440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Texas Tech Red Raiders73c37,081$26,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,092.2412549.6%62 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Kansas State39c29,645$11,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,662.3885947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Kansas State27c20,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4006832.4%22 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Texas Tech Red Raiders74c13,488$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,487.6119362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Kansas State27c13,468$3,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695.8586243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kansas State27c12,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,24052641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Kansas State45c11,900$5,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,313.7117443.7%76 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Kansas State28c7,143$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007146.5%33 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders75c7,101$5,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.0140541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Kansas State20c5,545$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10020039.5%79 W · 121 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Texas Tech Red Raiders72c5,260$3,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.9332745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Texas Tech Red Raiders58c4,108$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.938145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Kansas State23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kansas State28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12038142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Texas Tech Red Raiders74c3,709$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.1264841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kansas State21c3,344$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.1419842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Texas Tech Red Raiders53c2,830$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.1929055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Kansas State27c2,814$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.8949443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas State47c2,524$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.8840244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Kansas State51c2,523$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.0615751%80 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Kansas State12c2,404$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005414.8%8 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Kansas State27c2,321$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.7611248.2%54 W · 58 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas State21c2,305$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.7162843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Texas Tech Red Raiders72c2,165$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.134250.3%172 W · 170 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Kansas State32c2,097$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.3455350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders73c1,791$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.683036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.7wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-40.9%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Kansas State44c1,756$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.6414743.5%64 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Kansas State28c1,747$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.0934529.9%103 W · 242 L-21.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…9ed3backed Kansas State29c1,743$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders58c1,281$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.6321538.6%83 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Texas Tech Red Raiders74c1,017$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.33714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-80.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Kansas State50c990$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked Kansas State44c973.42$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.814235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kansas State37c940$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.248546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Kansas State29c900$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2616731.3%21 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Kansas State28c898$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.445440.7%22 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders71c874.51$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.612,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Kansas State49c835$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.1515451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Kansas State28c800$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22415734.4%54 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f32…0af7backed Texas Tech Red Raiders72c700$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d7…48cfbacked Kansas State28c700$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Kansas State27c700$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18925629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked Kansas State27c644.79$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.0947131.4%148 W · 323 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Texas Tech Red Raiders72c585$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.4350358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f82…d6abbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders50c580$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2907048.6%34 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed Texas Tech Red Raiders73c547.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.952540%10 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e9…ac60backed Texas Tech Red Raiders57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb667…64ddbacked Kansas State4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Kansas State28c423.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7220757.5%119 W · 88 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders57c374.89$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.24240.5%17 W · 25 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49b5…e5eebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders68c323.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7157144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Kansas State26c313.51$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5175651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Kansas State56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1688078.8%63 W · 17 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xc47e…8ae4backed Kansas State47c255.81$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202544%11 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…d057backed Kansas State23c234.13$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Kansas State26c225.33$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5922030.5%67 W · 153 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Texas Tech Red Raiders72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dd5…1306backed Kansas State27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544531.1%14 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Kansas State27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5428032.9%92 W · 188 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9042244.5%188 W · 234 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…e348backed Texas Tech Red Raiders73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb36…1c00backed Texas Tech Red Raiders72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Kansas State27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5416945.6%77 W · 92 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Kansas State27c183$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4121629.2%63 W · 153 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff0…73fdbacked Kansas State29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Kansas State27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.518416.8%31 W · 153 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.893961.5%24 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14cf…594ebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.893100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Kansas State29c135$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1581847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…0f2dbacked Kansas State23c130$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Kansas State29c114.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2126846.3%124 W · 144 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Kansas State29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296949.3%34 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked Kansas State25c98.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6425819.8%51 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Kansas State27c92.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.117634.7%61 W · 115 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9334…32dabacked Texas Tech Red Raiders73c82.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1918868.1%128 W · 60 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed Texas Tech Red Raiders64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.132737%10 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Kansas State27c74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9824436.9%90 W · 154 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f79…7ed4backed Kansas State28c72.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.227335.6%26 W · 47 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb597…ec76backed Kansas State28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4de…cb5cbacked Kansas State29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.132060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4964…a330backed Kansas State29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…bf72backed Kansas State29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712d…3d9abacked Kansas State23c65.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Kansas State43c59.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5516044.4%71 W · 89 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe530…a2cabacked Texas Tech Red Raiders72c55.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.569752.6%51 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders73c54.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.794872.9%35 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2155…0416backed Texas Tech Red Raiders72c52.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.663100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c3…f46ebacked Kansas State46c51.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-31.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc084…a34fbacked Kansas State29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Texas Tech Red Raiders79c50.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.345168.6%35 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Texas Tech Red Raiders71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.530548.9%149 W · 156 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Texas Tech Red Raiders71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.524157.3%138 W · 103 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Texas Tech Red Raiders72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1411354.9%62 W · 51 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10a7…c0debacked Texas Tech Red Raiders65c43.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.082166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a29…c0b6backed Texas Tech Red Raiders72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.676764.2%43 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…cd3abacked Kansas State27c39.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Kansas State55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.