TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,821 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99a5…328ebacked Mavericks42c968.04$407 inLost-$407.3910844.4%48 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Cavaliers78c354.78$275 inWon+$79.4213835.5%49 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Cavaliers71c328.79$233 inWon+$95.351,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c57…bf46backed Mavericks23c265.22$61 inLost-$613740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers78c173.42$135 inWon+$38.624,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf305…8299backed Cavaliers16c168.97$28 inWon+$141.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+147.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Cavaliers77c131.18$101 inWon+$30.1750651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…abb4backed Cavaliers17c111.79$19 inWon+$92.79728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers77c105.6$82 inWon+$23.825,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Mavericks20c97.97$20 inLost-$19.66417.3%3 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Mavericks27c92.85$25 inLost-$2515248%73 W · 79 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe3…949cbacked Mavericks23c86.96$20 inLost-$207222.2%16 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Cavaliers74c84.27$63 inWon+$21.5526353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mavericks17c60.5$10 inLost-$10.011,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bc…a4c6backed Cavaliers74c45.11$33 inWon+$11.733464.7%22 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Cavaliers80c37$30 inWon+$7.453839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Cavaliers70c34$24 inWon+$10.221937%81 W · 138 L-15.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd45…a81dbacked Mavericks35c30$11 inLost-$10.56552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81b0…6592backed Cavaliers70c20$14 inWon+$63040%12 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5607…05e3backed Cavaliers77c12.99$10 inWon+$2.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.