TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,271 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f4a…cf21backed Under42c489.42$206 inLost-$205.561145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd4…676ebacked Over59c262.95$155 inWon+$107.811464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bf1…796ebacked Over58c127.44$74 inWon+$53.521546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3a…4d28backed Over58c123.24$71 inWon+$51.762055%11 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a6…f2e3backed Over58c121.19$70 inWon+$50.91850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6a…089bbacked Over58c117.55$68 inWon+$49.37955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3227…5df7backed Under41c90.55$37 inLost-$37.131250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa88…9ff5backed Under41c89.96$37 inLost-$36.881526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5955…f86ebacked Under41c82.15$34 inLost-$33.681258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over54c51.36$28 inWon+$23.783,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Under46c46.36$21 inLost-$21.3330845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Over59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under48c31.61$15 inLost-$15.315,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under41c30$12 inLost-$12.31,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.