TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,301 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks54c17,873$9,651 inLost-$9,650.929,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Cavaliers46c13,045$6,001 inWon+$7,044.35030%15 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Cavaliers46c9,384$4,317 inWon+$5,067.3635744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks54c3,877$2,093 inLost-$2,093.456,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers45c1,491$671 inWon+$820.054,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers45c600$271 inWon+$329.333,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Mavericks54c463$250 inLost-$250.0213835.5%49 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Mavericks54c356.92$193 inLost-$192.741,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Mavericks52c347.31$181 inLost-$180.62,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Cavaliers46c310$143 inWon+$167.445646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers66c300$198 inWon+$1022,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Cavaliers48c300$144 inWon+$15620051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc782…3288backed Mavericks55c181.82$100 inLost-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Cavaliers46c155$71 inWon+$83.756547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a5…328ebacked Cavaliers47c145.42$69 inWon+$76.610844.4%48 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Mavericks54c129.63$70 inLost-$708942.7%38 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers46c108.66$50 inWon+$58.672,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers45c106.32$48 inWon+$58.482,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Mavericks53c105.3$56 inLost-$55.813847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bd…463dbacked Mavericks56c100$56 inLost-$5638261.5%235 W · 147 L+30.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers50c73.22$36 inWon+$36.721,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7117…4339backed Mavericks55c45.86$25 inLost-$251145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Mavericks53c44.68$24 inLost-$23.682,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb858…7dc3backed Cavaliers47c44.68$21 inWon+$23.688142%34 W · 47 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Mavericks45c43.96$20 inLost-$2053250.4%268 W · 264 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers70c43.54$30 inWon+$13.061,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked Cavaliers46c43.48$20 inWon+$23.4813447%63 W · 71 L+0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Mavericks43c40$17 inLost-$17.214959.7%89 W · 60 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b91…492ebacked Mavericks55c36.36$20 inLost-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers45c34.4$15 inWon+$18.924,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…a81dbacked Mavericks58c32.27$19 inLost-$18.676552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Mavericks55c30.91$17 inLost-$1734854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Mavericks57c30.02$17 inLost-$17.0929645.6%135 W · 161 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Cavaliers45c22.24$10 inWon+$12.231,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Cavaliers50c21.96$11 inWon+$10.9837665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks50c20.36$10 inLost-$10.163,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Mavericks55c20$11 inLost-$1130348.2%146 W · 157 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Mavericks55c20$11 inLost-$1115054%81 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Mavericks54c18.52$10 inLost-$1091746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.