TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$417,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,270 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a57…2afabacked Over51c147,000$74,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,240.618944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under49c68,062$33,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,282.531,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under50c51,903$25,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,951.5615545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under49c43,062$21,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,093.264,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Over51c35,858$18,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,570.3138253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c34,000$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c25,845$12,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,513.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…6908backed Over50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,000.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9556…4654backed Under50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under49c16,327$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Over53c15,170$7,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,196.687451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Under48c12,500$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.995030%15 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69eb…fa92backed Under49c12,245$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Over52c10,709$5,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,140.178153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f4…ed78backed Under49c9,592$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7001662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over50c6,582$3,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.141,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under49c5,592$2,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,74049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under48c5,298$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.882,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…ae3abacked Under49c4,988$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under49c4,798$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35170246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under49c4,412$2,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,161.031,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over52c4,126$2,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.581,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c4,017$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.924,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8861…4c2ebacked Over51c3,942$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.83860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x051f…efd3backed Over52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.151070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2148…3f30backed Over52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.151275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+50.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c3,317$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.243,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Over53c3,236$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.9211653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c2,926$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.328,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Over52c2,747$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.4330446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under49c2,742$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.732,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over51c2,725$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.192,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb628…a5f5backed Over52c2,514$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under48c2,502$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.66,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73d…c059backed Under48c2,499$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a8…4629backed Under48c2,466$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over52c2,428$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.262,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2183…afd6backed Over52c2,424$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec60…22b4backed Under48c2,415$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7689…3080backed Under48c2,406$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Over52c2,305$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.2817042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Under49c2,186$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0715147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c2,140$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.094,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Under49c2,101$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.719445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b0…a9e6backed Under48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007439.2%29 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacae…494fbacked Over52c2,076$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8c…83edbacked Over52c2,051$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00032150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Over50c2,002$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.0626637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa995…9560backed Over52c1,961$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Under48c1,901$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.9137842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6cd…e58dbacked Under48c1,877$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1694…9233backed Over52c1,870$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b62…f606backed Under48c1,806$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8bf…4d16backed Under48c1,805$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f2e…d772backed Under48c1,803$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb611…e22dbacked Over52c1,790$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…5acdbacked Under48c1,750$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63f8…7e65backed Over52c1,746$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…8a4bbacked Over52c1,743$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8b1…6262backed Over52c1,740$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4e9…97c6backed Over52c1,710$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1277…4f7fbacked Over52c1,703$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf66…362cbacked Over52c1,690$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under50c1,650$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82521653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf25…aeb5backed Over52c1,640$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef8d…98c1backed Over52c1,590$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c9…497bbacked Over52c1,540$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Under47c1,496$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.0128554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a0…7310backed Over52c1,490$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.21566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+38.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfca4…10a2backed Over52c1,440$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over52c1,432$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.3658347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Under48c1,133$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.613835.5%49 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c1,008$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.765,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Over53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…828ebacked Under48c973.33$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.541,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over51c943.84$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.314,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under49c877.55$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43081349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over52c828.66$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.761,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under44c806.8$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.742,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Over52c671.69$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.4141553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Over50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30016837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under49c586.87$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.023,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under49c510$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.977549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x010c…62bbbacked Over52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c08…e1a3backed Under48c410$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Under49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20043352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e6e…1a6ebacked Under48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over52c391.92$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.1262347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafc9…faf9backed Under48c390$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc54…f0f8backed Under48c380$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1488…a70dbacked Under48c380$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf07…2387backed Under48c370$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63c1…dc4fbacked Under48c370$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd23…6a8ebacked Under48c370$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc50…0853backed Under48c360$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc6…8c7cbacked Under48c360$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x290c…5d8dbacked Under48c360$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.