NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe978983e40747d61c471323aae99006c0470fa906f42d184d3b9e5b1e64525e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,980 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Cavaliers | 57c | 14,311$8,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,153.57 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 43c | 9,010$3,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,873.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1d…e539backed Mavericks | 42c | 3,729$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…ea35backed Cavaliers | 58c | 2,467$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…c6c2backed Cavaliers | 58c | 2,461$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…9cdfbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 2,449$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5840…c438backed Mavericks | 42c | 2,321$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa96…acbfbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 2,320$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…4ddbbacked Mavericks | 42c | 2,278$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…742bbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 2,072$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efc…1e81backed Mavericks | 42c | 1,883$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 41c | 1,828$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks | 43c | 1,736$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.67 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…5834backed Mavericks | 42c | 1,608$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd44…f50fbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 1,594$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0660…bac7backed Mavericks | 42c | 1,544$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 43c | 1,416$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.07 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Mavericks | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Cavaliers | 58c | 858.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.93 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks | 43c | 797.62$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.98 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks | 43c | 743$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.49 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Mavericks | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 57c | 606.59$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.1 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Cavaliers | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 56c | 461.33$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.56 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Mavericks | 44c | 263.69$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Cavaliers | 59c | 186.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Cavaliers | 59c | 168.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked Cavaliers | 79c | 153$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…ae06backed Cavaliers | 57c | 143$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks | 42c | 142.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Mavericks | 42c | 140.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cavaliers | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks | 46c | 128.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks | 41c | 105.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Cavaliers | 58c | 100.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Cavaliers | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 53c | 66.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Mavericks | 51c | 46.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…99bebacked Cavaliers | 48c | 41.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mavericks | 52c | 35.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Cavaliers | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…095fbacked Mavericks | 43c | 29.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Cavaliers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Cavaliers | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. MavericksCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-19.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-21.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-25.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-26.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.