NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0e4c7b3fd2ec557a195814bb73e8a0116d5f18c8f982df53f4e345143b0bc6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,814 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 57c | 2,634$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.8 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace8…4624backed Under | 45c | 2,515$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 54c | 1,381$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.93 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 1,364$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.75 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 1,352$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 46c | 1,050$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 58c | 820.73$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.67 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…280cbacked Under | 44c | 795.5$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.75 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 45c | 493.87$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.77 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0a6fbacked Over | 55c | 360$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 45c | 320.03$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.3 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 56c | 302.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.74 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 298.7$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 55c | 211$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 42c | 204.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 183.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…cca5backed Under | 45c | 169$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…40ddbacked Under | 42c | 158$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…55c3backed Under | 45c | 145$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Over | 58c | 127.54$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…f6a3backed Under | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 45c | 90.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed1…4d3bbacked Over | 55c | 76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 56c | 74.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 46c | 61.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 55c | 57.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4380…7d8dbacked Over | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…a5f1backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…a835backed Over | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…b60fbacked Over | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…5364backed Over | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Under | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…0b5dbacked Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Over | 53c | 35.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 171 | 53.2%91 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…b748backed Over | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Under | 46c | 31.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…f417backed Over | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…b484backed Over | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c3bebacked Over | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x537d…c189backed Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce38…eecdbacked Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…018bbacked Over | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c6…dd21backed Over | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…4f9ebacked Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 52c | 20.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 54c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…1382backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…1ba6backed Over | 58c | 17.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. MavericksCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-19.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-21.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-25.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-26.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.