TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,890 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf94f…9adabacked Under56c8,930$5,001 inLost-$5,000.761353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Over47c8,127$3,820 inWon+$4,307.3131643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over50c1,968$978 inWon+$990.114,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under49c1,892$930 inLost-$929.881,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over44c1,872$824 inWon+$1,048.374,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under53c1,485$787 inLost-$786.789,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under4c1,115$48 inLost-$48.1283039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under32c451.09$142 inLost-$142.23,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over44c405.62$178 inWon+$227.23,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over46c372.74$170 inWon+$202.743,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Under14c347.56$48 inLost-$47.5618835.1%66 W · 122 L+24.5wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+116.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over49c223.53$110 inWon+$1141,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under56c196.43$110 inLost-$11095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over60c157.06$95 inWon+$62.491,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Under67c149.25$100 inLost-$10012359.3%73 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under55c142.56$79 inLost-$78.681,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over79c126.58$100 inWon+$26.5865872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under55c122.35$67 inLost-$66.932,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under30c118.01$35 inLost-$35.42,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Under50c100$50 inLost-$5035849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f8…31e9backed Over50c50$25 inWon+$257647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over45c50$23 inWon+$27.578648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Under61c29.9$18 inLost-$18.242751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under54c28$15 inLost-$15.1252552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Over49c20.41$10 inWon+$10.4197049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under56c20$11 inLost-$11.242551.3%218 W · 207 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under57c20$11 inLost-$11.441354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.