NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb249bcd3ac15bdc08ac878be9fc2e4e0561b57dbece200b906b061f23b62114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,931 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Mavericks | 48c | 9,237$4,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,433.85 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…4c2ebacked Cavaliers | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 3,408$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Cavaliers | 76c | 1,969$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Cavaliers | 53c | 1,900$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.31 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Mavericks | 24c | 1,096$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.97 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mavericks | 25c | 1,054$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.11 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…4090backed Cavaliers | 49c | 1,023$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.81 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks | 47c | 835.86$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.81 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 48c | 772$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 772$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.56 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Mavericks | 47c | 715.55$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Mavericks | 47c | 580.1$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.56 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Cavaliers | 52c | 577$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.96 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 63c | 474.28$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Mavericks | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 47c | 346.64$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Cavaliers | 53c | 296.37$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks | 35c | 291.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Mavericks | 48c | 279.16$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 48c | 213.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks | 42c | 201.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Cavaliers | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Cavaliers | 52c | 190.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Cavaliers | 52c | 187$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…a83dbacked Mavericks | 46c | 181$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…080fbacked Mavericks | 46c | 172$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 126$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Mavericks | 51c | 123.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cavaliers | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Mavericks | 22c | 106.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Mavericks | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Mavericks | 24c | 93.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6e…17abbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…d9e1backed Mavericks | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe845…faf7backed Cavaliers | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x620f…5031backed Cavaliers | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Mavericks | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 46c | 52.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Cavaliers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Mavericks | 47c | 49.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Mavericks | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 487 | 39.8%194 W · 293 L | -21.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Mavericks | 50c | 47.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd1…eddabacked Cavaliers | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Mavericks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…4b69backed Mavericks | 25c | 40.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…eaf9backed Cavaliers | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Mavericks | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5413…73aabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5a…4fdabacked Cavaliers | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Cavaliers | 72c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 46c | 25.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…be21backed Cavaliers | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 46c | 24.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 46c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f6bfbacked Mavericks | 47c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Mavericks | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…b83cbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Mavericks | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919c…06d8backed Cavaliers | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 198 | 52%103 W · 95 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…653cbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cavaliers | 54c | 20.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…2bfbbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. MavericksCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-19.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-21.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-25.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-26.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.