NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a766e390ed7591f5bb0681c82d7120a4c40cc3867e41e7e12b665c9c69a0ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,065 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 8,736$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,979.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…7c26backed Over | 54c | 4,360$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.6 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 3,735$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 2,269$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.75 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 53c | 1,543$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.56 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 55c | 1,441$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.41 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e9…a60cbacked Under | 46c | 1,426$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 55c | 1,384$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.62 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Over | 55c | 1,250$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.49 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 54c | 1,001$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.78 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 715$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 532.95$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 496.03$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 54c | 460.56$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.57 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 56c | 450.36$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.16 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 370.24$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 339.45$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 56c | 330.91$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Under | 44c | 326.36$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 45c | 320$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 44c | 306.88$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Over | 56c | 290.93$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 266.03$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 265.02$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 47c | 264.69$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 257.94$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 46c | 242.19$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 54c | 150.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a0…62d0backed Under | 43c | 138$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…a3e6backed Under | 44c | 137$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 54c | 112.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c03…1c9fbacked Under | 44c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 44c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 47c | 99.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 88.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 56c | 85.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 54c | 84.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 44c | 78.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 45c | 76.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Under | 46c | 73.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 46c | 68.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 44c | 66.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…556fbacked Over | 58c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 44c | 56.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…782cbacked Over | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 57c | 52.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 50c | 52.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…50ddbacked Over | 57c | 51.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Under | 45c | 50.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…cecbbacked Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 38.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 47c | 29.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…a582backed Over | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce38…eecdbacked Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa078…7e6abacked Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 47c | 22.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Over | 53c | 21.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 171 | 53.2%91 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 53c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. MavericksCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-19.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-21.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-25.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-26.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.