Movies · resolved market
Will Seth Rogen (The Studio) win Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e8806fb91a7563f879e8f06babec375fcbbba2458c625cd7728394d72d9b5c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x991a…2411backed No | 8c | 6,398$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 10c | 1,161$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…4241backed Yes | 42c | 750$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…3137backed No | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 9c | 650$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 9c | 589$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 9c | 581$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 9c | 557$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 9c | 529$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b30dbacked No | 6c | 489.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 7c | 485$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 9c | 434$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 9c | 433$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 11c | 412.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 9c | 367$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 9c | 364$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed No | 9c | 327$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked No | 9c | 316$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 9c | 303$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 9c | 267$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 11c | 262.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 9c | 253$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 9c | 238$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked No | 10c | 222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 186.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 176.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5feb…3173backed No | 45c | 176.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…c2c6backed No | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 71c | 169.24$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 9c | 167$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…d0e1backed No | 58c | 156$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…06d0backed No | 58c | 155$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…03abbacked No | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…e7b2backed No | 58c | 145$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…424ebacked No | 58c | 144$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 14c | 142.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 9c | 142$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 9c | 141$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 73c | 128.18$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab0…3500backed No | 69c | 110.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 10c | 104.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 14c | 91.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seth Rogen (The Studio) win Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) win Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) win Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.