Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0910ebd245cecfd2249178419ffe680631ce3fda5e9f64d2edcce561bc85e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timofey Skatovof Timofey Skatov, Gilles Arnaud Bailly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 1c | 16,320$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdf…ec9ebacked Timofey Skatov | 58c | 8,599$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,598.62 | 175 | 56.6%99 W · 76 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…c809backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 23c | 3,043$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 2,140$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.71 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 1,954$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.63 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 1,849$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.45 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 19c | 1,560$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 41c | 1,366$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.66 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…0fcbbacked Timofey Skatov | 47c | 1,027$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Timofey Skatov | 57c | 832.5$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.98 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 4c | 750.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 735.79$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.03 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 18c | 714.42$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…6794backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 30c | 504.68$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.81 | 369 | 54.2%200 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 482.03$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.7 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 4c | 431.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Timofey Skatov | 71c | 402.33$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Timofey Skatov | 53c | 386.87$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.57 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 31c | 300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…31a7backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca64…4f43backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 29c | 244.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 26c | 242.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 350 | 39.4%138 W · 212 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 241.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Timofey Skatov | 71c | 219.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 460 | 40%184 W · 276 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Timofey Skatov | 80c | 202.49$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 199.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 528 | 47%248 W · 280 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 24c | 198.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 194.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…c784backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 41c | 152$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Timofey Skatov | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 46c | 146.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 127.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Timofey Skatov | 79c | 125.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Timofey Skatov | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Timofey Skatov | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 116.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 306 | 48.4%148 W · 158 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…3798backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 22c | 108.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Timofey Skatov | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 244 | 46.3%113 W · 131 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e6…2db1backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…6655backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 84.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 65.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…95e8backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Timofey Skatov | 67c | 62.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 391 | 57.8%226 W · 165 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 45c | 62.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe366…6de2backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Timofey Skatov | 73c | 58.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 45c | 57.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…8181backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 812 | 56.2%456 W · 356 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 50.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab2…9decbacked Timofey Skatov | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Timofey Skatov | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…9980backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 221 | 43.9%97 W · 124 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Timofey Skatov | 58c | 49.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 43c | 44.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…492ebacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe75…5af2backed Timofey Skatov | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4196…ecefbacked Timofey Skatov | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40e…9addbacked Timofey Skatov | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 386 | 64%247 W · 139 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 33.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…b550backed Timofey Skatov | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Timofey Skatov | 60c | 29.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…08fabacked Timofey Skatov | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…4c7ebacked Timofey Skatov | 59c | 23.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f12…3f91backed Timofey Skatov | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.