Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f3870bf2cea13042498226aed6008a5a122751a6bca6a328c77a891337ffb4b

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,837
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,862

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,837 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes	44c	2,140$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.52	362	47.2%171 W · 191 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No	53c	1,713$915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$798.36	373	50.1%187 W · 186 L	+45.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked No	51c	638.08$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.06	210	51%107 W · 103 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+19%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked No	52c	603.84$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$289.39	1,475	44.9%663 W · 812 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dbe…9013backed Yes	52c	600.91$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.45	97	45.4%44 W · 53 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked No	56c	500$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	52c	449.46$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Yes	43c	205.86$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.52	40	35%14 W · 26 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a57…ac32backed Yes	52c	103.85$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	141	48.2%68 W · 73 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc903…421dbacked Yes	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked No	50c	89.82$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.91	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked No	46c	87.03$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9661…88fbbacked Yes	51c	84.16$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No	47c	80$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.4	778	45%350 W · 428 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked No	48c	71.15$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked No	48c	70$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.75	1,240	43.7%542 W · 698 L	+13.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c6…0ff4backed Yes	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cef…2c8dbacked No	47c	39.22$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.79	434	60.4%262 W · 172 L	+33.5wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed No	47c	39.22$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.79	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d5e…b7e4backed Yes	48c	33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Yes	53c	31.93$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	94	67%63 W · 31 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94ec…1a4bbacked No	50c	31.93$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.97	63	66.7%42 W · 21 L	+12.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	54c	31$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.25	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	50c	26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-3.7wins	-0.17per pick	56cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No	47c	25.52$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.53	90	64.4%58 W · 32 L	+11.7wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed No	54c	25.31$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.77	1,293	53.6%693 W · 600 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf285…52c2backed Yes	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 72. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event