Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57aeaa7df55d8442f42a12992b71acc46f03d87f81b92646574639987caec3c2

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,647 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xafac…8730backed Yes	12c	9,833$1,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a5…9450backed Yes	11c	4,545$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	72	25%18 W · 54 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8089…f935backed Yes	11c	4,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a64…51b4backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206c…d936backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	+4.1wins	+0.11per pick	21cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1980…3c8dbacked Yes	11c	903.73$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.41	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-3.9wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb50b…a74fbacked Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	15cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c29…efe5backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	73	15.1%11 W · 62 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	11c	484.09$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.13	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76c…dc83backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	160	16.3%26 W · 134 L	-11.0wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1306…c689backed Yes	11c	434.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	156	45.5%71 W · 85 L	+9.3wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+10%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	11c	349.09$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3554…d825backed Yes	11c	345.45$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1b…9876backed Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	327	33%108 W · 219 L	+9.6wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a7…d1cbbacked Yes	11c	220$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	467	43.3%202 W · 265 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	101	41.6%42 W · 59 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a0…da23backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	97	13.4%13 W · 84 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Yes	11c	175$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	165	35.2%58 W · 107 L	+15.3wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes	8c	155.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-46.1wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes	11c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	239	50.2%120 W · 119 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	319	20.1%64 W · 255 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	13c	149.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x937b…2909backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x218e…95d3backed Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	122	36.1%44 W · 78 L	-8.8wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9041…ddbabacked Yes	11c	118.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	113	38.9%44 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Yes	11c	114.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	298	13.8%41 W · 257 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ad…2161backed Yes	11c	113.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	145	26.2%38 W · 107 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes	11c	110$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c9…7a68backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	333	45.3%151 W · 182 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 72. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event