Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7954747be508fddbb37210434c12b033c8b3a51ab34e71462cdcc90e3b8aaf2

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,012 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes	45c	6,000$2,730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,269.99	362	47.2%171 W · 191 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf17a…fa3abacked No	55c	4,727$2,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,600	162	60.5%98 W · 64 L	+22.3wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+29%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No	52c	1,201$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.63	343	57.7%198 W · 145 L	+26.2wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No	51c	1,066$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.52	373	50.1%187 W · 186 L	+45.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x62c9…7304backed Yes	49c	1,020$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.41	89	13.5%12 W · 77 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked No	53c	749.98$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.24	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	55c	325.48$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.53	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No	54c	317.7$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.56	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	48c	250$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes	48c	250$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	302	41.4%125 W · 177 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	46c	225.02$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.8	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes	46c	222.61$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.19	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x271e…f001backed Yes	47c	172.94$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.66	123	44.7%55 W · 68 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2216…5a86backed Yes	47c	150.32$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.32	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3396…2448backed Yes	45c	150$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.26	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8224…7384backed Yes	47c	108.51$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.51	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Yes	47c	105.49$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.44	1,293	53.6%693 W · 600 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035f…8e20backed Yes	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0188…afc3backed No	53c	90$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.7	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked No	54c	79.14$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	452	54.6%247 W · 205 L	+13.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Yes	46c	70.39$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.01	182	48.9%89 W · 93 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes	46c	70.39$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.01	320	44.1%141 W · 179 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes	45c	69.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.5	559	42.4%237 W · 322 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94ec…1a4bbacked No	52c	66.76$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	63	66.7%42 W · 21 L	+12.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Yes	45c	66.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.67	98	32.7%32 W · 66 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dff…7fecbacked No	53c	58.92$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.23	139	56.8%79 W · 60 L	+9.8wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa882…e517backed Yes	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes	47c	44.44$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.56	1,240	43.7%542 W · 698 L	+13.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	56c	43.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.59	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3637…8663backed Yes	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ede…6395backed Yes	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c3…ef9fbacked Yes	46c	40.87$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.07	77	35.1%27 W · 50 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dce…dcc3backed Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	92	45.7%42 W · 50 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbee…287abacked Yes	48c	37.43$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.43	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac7b…83e3backed Yes	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x045c…5861backed Yes	44c	24.98$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.89	43	74.4%32 W · 11 L	+10.7wins	+0.25per pick	49cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked No	53c	24.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	377	47.7%180 W · 197 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 72. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event