Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dff75440a4cfaa7d6b22f65e2d88d5fc1da27afc25a8249144a07e4e24dabe4

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,583
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,583 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5282…38c6backed Yes	14c	750$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	118	28%33 W · 85 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes	15c	319.56$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.93	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x787b…652bbacked Yes	16c	314.82$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes	7c	293.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-46.1wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	15c	206.79$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.99	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b3…0e11backed Yes	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f20…f150backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	54.7%29 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a60…a744backed Yes	16c	125.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x644b…ec38backed Yes	14c	121.43$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yes	17c	109.53$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	1,141	46.2%527 W · 614 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	19c	52.01$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed No	77c	31.79$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.3	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	80c	26$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 72. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event