Erling Haaland: 3+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f3e8029e50a8bf07b6316cff83e129d42c28c28a2cb41ffab81420c021c2f13

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,260
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $39,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,260 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbccb…6d3abacked Yes	11c	5,569$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.72	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	13cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34a…78c7backed Yes	13c	3,846$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	137	21.2%29 W · 108 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	49c	2,627$1,276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,350.25	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a72…d306backed Yes	60c	1,668$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	91	61.5%56 W · 35 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8de…3111backed Yes	13c	1,538$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	95	15.8%15 W · 80 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f5f…1695backed Yes	13c	1,538$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	372	23.9%89 W · 283 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Yes	13c	1,027$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.48	154	18.8%29 W · 125 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	16c	948.77$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.89	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed4f…d11fbacked Yes	12c	879.56$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c41…eeb9backed Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	80	26.3%21 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	+6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf695…409fbacked Yes	12c	814.67$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.76	62	21%13 W · 49 L	-7.9wins	-0.13per pick	34cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x13f9…c307backed Yes	13c	765.15$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.47	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x234b…4118backed Yes	13c	704.08$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.53	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf692…dd55backed Yes	15c	685.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d0…593dbacked Yes	16c	623.34$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	123	29.3%36 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcdc0…e6a6backed Yes	13c	600$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+2.7wins	+0.18per pick	35cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45c2…498fbacked Yes	13c	527.54$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.58	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x354b…4744backed Yes	57c	526.92$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	114	43.9%50 W · 64 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…c51abacked Yes	12c	513$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.56	57	29.8%17 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	454	21.4%97 W · 357 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…1fc7backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Yes	16c	440$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.4	198	23.7%47 W · 151 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5995…53b3backed Yes	57c	433.7$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.86	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…ab05backed Yes	12c	403.92$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.47	68	30.9%21 W · 47 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf87c…8c97backed Yes	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	161	23.6%38 W · 123 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed Yes	12c	380$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	185	38.9%72 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9236…db6dbacked Yes	14c	360.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	163	41.1%67 W · 96 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc31a…bfb2backed Yes	14c	358.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	83	20.5%17 W · 66 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c7…f1f3backed Yes	13c	330.77$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	131	22.1%29 W · 102 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44f3…975cbacked No	48c	274.04$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.51	68	30.9%21 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	9c	247$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.23	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes	14c	214.64$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	53c	212.59$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.73	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Yes	13c	207.69$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…14e8backed Yes	15c	206.49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2397…55bcbacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	109	31.2%34 W · 75 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b7…c4d2backed No	49c	197.77$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.11	56	64.3%36 W · 20 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes	13c	192.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	303	21.5%65 W · 238 L	+8.9wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f90…4c92backed Yes	37c	189.19$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	206	30.6%63 W · 143 L	-7.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x565f…cb2dbacked Yes	58c	168.52$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.36	83	38.6%32 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc482…f0bebacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	77	29.9%23 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01fd…01dabacked Yes	15c	166.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a4a…044ebacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x776a…5349backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb77…9b07backed Yes	13c	148.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9136…eec3backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	33.9%21 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No	78c	132.22$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.09	288	73.3%211 W · 77 L	+21.7wins	+0.08per pick	66cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2c4…97e3backed Yes	13c	130$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+3.3wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebda…5208backed Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	14c	108.93$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5b…744ebacked Yes	12c	108.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x63a1…bf89backed Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	30cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b08…dd9bbacked Yes	14c	105.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	75	44%33 W · 42 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3109…4ef4backed Yes	22c	102.55$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	120	25.8%31 W · 89 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	173	40.5%70 W · 103 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x189e…64c3backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a7…b778backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd841…64cabacked Yes	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	84	61.9%52 W · 32 L	+7.0wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No	66c	83.87$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	208	60.6%126 W · 82 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f4f…1bd9backed Yes	33c	80$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.1	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa1…36f6backed Yes	50c	73$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.46	81	53.1%43 W · 38 L	-6.2wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbed6…de52backed Yes	21c	71.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfddf…de2abacked Yes	47c	63.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	57c	61.97$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.49	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xde70…615fbacked Yes	50c	58$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b57…263ebacked Yes	56c	53.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	397	52.1%207 W · 190 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45fe…2423backed Yes	61c	49.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	79	43%34 W · 45 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes	57c	43.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	173	57.8%100 W · 73 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ce…278ebacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-42%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4148…4397backed Yes	56c	39.21$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	165	44.8%74 W · 91 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes	45c	37.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	177	60.5%107 W · 70 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f0a…bd05backed Yes	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0a…a321backed Yes	55c	35.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…609ebacked Yes	52c	34.62$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…6c15backed Yes	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.41per pick	66cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x978f…e14dbacked Yes	41c	29.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	+9.0wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf830…b341backed Yes	50c	28.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes	49c	20.21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	91	46.2%42 W · 49 L	+6.1wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Erling Haaland: 3+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event