Premier League · resolved market
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30975635c3bd1cbb6406aacfe3061e390e393500b61bc3b1e96ca07a18da4327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 37c | 23,250$8,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,580.24 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 4,565$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.89 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Under | 65c | 3,077$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.92 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 63c | 2,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 73c | 2,500$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.93 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21a…c0c6backed Under | 65c | 2,303$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 66c | 2,286$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.8 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 28c | 1,682$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.07 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 36c | 1,141$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.78 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,138$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.71 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 20c | 757.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…b988backed Under | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 63c | 659.43$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.99 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 44cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…7fc3backed Over | 36c | 551.69$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 33c | 507.31$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 63c | 457$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.09 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 37c | 306.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 65c | 305.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 223 | 56.5%126 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Over | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Over | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Over | 32c | 220$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 170 | 17.6%30 W · 140 L | -27.5wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Under | 64c | 199.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…e839backed Under | 67c | 177.28$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed Over | 33c | 148.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 36c | 108.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked Over | 34c | 108.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 191 | 28.8%55 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 36c | 99.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked Under | 66c | 65.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 294 | 58.2%171 W · 123 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca49…daddbacked Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 35c | 54.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Under | 66c | 50.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Under | 65c | 47.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x609b…5877backed Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Under | 64c | 26.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Under | 65c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.