Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78564bd2bf2d42bbabf7d179b51923949c238eb1b5a83da5b774fea5808b1298

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,104
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,104 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No	51c	11,414$5,766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,648.21	6,047	45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L	-21.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Yes	53c	3,622$1,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,919.5	55	60%33 W · 22 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	53c	3,141$1,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,651.24	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed Yes	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-4.2wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed No	47c	2,000$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060	85	31.8%27 W · 58 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked No	48c	1,500$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$779.99	607	28%170 W · 437 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes	54c	1,296$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	78	41%32 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	149	43%64 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…6232backed Yes	45c	1,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Yes	53c	943.4$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	141	38.3%54 W · 87 L	-8.8wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed Yes	39c	769.23$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	107	36.4%39 W · 68 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef34…86b2backed No	71c	675.39$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.86	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Yes	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	69cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97b5…42f9backed Yes	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	127	46.5%59 W · 68 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No	49c	423.48$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.98	118	46.6%55 W · 63 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e2abbacked Yes	51c	410$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.1	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No	49c	345.31$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.57	1,224	40%490 W · 734 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f56…f1bbbacked Yes	29c	339.89$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a4…9206backed Yes	51c	298.04$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1586…012cbacked No	76c	247.84$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Yes	47c	234.25$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.5	130	54.6%71 W · 59 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a4…554abacked No	53c	230$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.1	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd53a…3d5abacked No	54c	222.22$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.22	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes	47c	220$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	170	17.6%30 W · 140 L	-27.5wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Yes	51c	206$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.06	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed No	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Yes	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	70	60%42 W · 28 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…18b0backed No	73c	194.76$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.76	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…ee32backed Yes	52c	192.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed Yes	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed No	59c	169.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.49	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe082…04bcbacked No	49c	165.37$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.39	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed No	75c	164.72$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.3	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes	12c	158.77$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	4,696	41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No	63c	158.03$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.03	240	62.5%150 W · 90 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1d…a925backed Yes	33c	149.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	102	42.2%43 W · 59 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa236…73f6backed No	69c	144.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No	48c	140.24$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.92	515	42.5%219 W · 296 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb32e…a46abacked Yes	42c	120$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked No	67c	118.33$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.05	83	65.1%54 W · 29 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	69cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbadb…6a54backed Yes	51c	117.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Yes	51c	113.72$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	-7.1wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb37…0e37backed Yes	24c	100.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No	50c	100.3$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.15	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4c…c962backed Yes	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a26…3256backed Yes	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…253cbacked Yes	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cae…fdc1backed No	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	114	46.5%53 W · 61 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+18%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72a9…05ddbacked Yes	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-3.6wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	33	63.6%21 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2b6…032cbacked Yes	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes	47c	95.7$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Yes	49c	91.57$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	357	43.1%154 W · 203 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No	69c	85.8$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.86	891	52.9%471 W · 420 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x45f0…babbbacked Yes	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.1wins	-0.35per pick	57cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked Yes	51c	72.63$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.04	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd033…033dbacked Yes	51c	68.63$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb985…cf92backed Yes	47c	63.3$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.75	39	59%23 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc8…8198backed Yes	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	110	60.9%67 W · 43 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1f…6823backed Yes	32c	56.25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	92	62%57 W · 35 L	+7.0wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed Yes	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	101	59.4%60 W · 41 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Yes	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	139	44.6%62 W · 77 L	-8.8wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Yes	52c	49.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	87	63.2%55 W · 32 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	68cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb9…d7ddbacked Yes	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276f…bfb5backed Yes	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb166…3105backed No	51c	45.29$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.29	184	49.5%91 W · 93 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa852…d55dbacked No	49c	43.55$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.37	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked No	63c	42.42$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.75	134	50.7%68 W · 66 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f3…04d0backed No	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	133	46.6%62 W · 71 L	-15.5wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc597…668ebacked Yes	51c	36.2$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.46	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed No	53c	34$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	115	57.4%66 W · 49 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked No	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x145a…8946backed No	72c	29.05$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.16	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1fa…2856backed Yes	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a01…9320backed Yes	51c	25.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcfb…4bb1backed No	49c	24.5$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd816…84b9backed Yes	51c	24.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd743…59bdbacked Yes	51c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…5a30backed No	59c	22.18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.09	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8f…afe0backed Yes	51c	21.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce0…5fcabacked Yes	52c	20.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-3.9wins	-0.19per pick	57cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed No	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	148	60.1%89 W · 59 L	+9.4wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x691e…cbbbbacked Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-5.3wins	-0.25per pick	54cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2909…c95cbacked Yes	55c	19.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-5.9wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x28bb…d0d6backed No	59c	17.41$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.14	48	62.5%30 W · 18 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaef7…1fa8backed No	77c	17.08$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.97	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event