St. John's Red Storm vs. Xavier Musketeers

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30a82157e5830724a40259fcfea9ca9c52c906a5062517c8b8bfdbd2488e37c8

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: St. John's Red Stormof St. John's Red Storm, Xavier Musketeers
Resolved: Jan 24, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $64,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,473 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4df5…4c8cbacked Xavier Musketeers	54c	3,679$1,996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,996.01	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Xavier Musketeers	68c	3,639$2,474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,473.56	96	52.1%50 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6b…3ba7backed St. John's Red Storm	30c	3,000$890 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,109.95	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Xavier Musketeers	21c	2,664$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.06	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…c897backed Xavier Musketeers	69c	2,623$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,800	233	31.3%73 W · 160 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f70…9f21backed Xavier Musketeers	42c	2,287$951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$951.11	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed St. John's Red Storm	39c	2,270$885 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,384.65	186	54.3%101 W · 85 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed St. John's Red Storm	55c	2,217$1,224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$993.22	497	47.5%236 W · 261 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Xavier Musketeers	58c	1,733$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-5.9wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked St. John's Red Storm	43c	1,715$732 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$983.51	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Xavier Musketeers	15c	1,625$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.5	88	17%15 W · 73 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Xavier Musketeers	55c	1,327$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734.36	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Xavier Musketeers	46c	1,311$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.86	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked St. John's Red Storm	51c	1,151$581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.2	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ef4…ff55backed St. John's Red Storm	74c	1,101$817 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$284.14	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Xavier Musketeers	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	200	26%52 W · 148 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c64…348fbacked Xavier Musketeers	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed St. John's Red Storm	58c	964.13$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.09	480	51%245 W · 235 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked St. John's Red Storm	57c	871.75$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378.99	870	47.2%411 W · 459 L	-23.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked St. John's Red Storm	48c	865.73$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.85	1,910	49.6%947 W · 963 L	+30.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Xavier Musketeers	63c	800$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed St. John's Red Storm	79c	705$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.88	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed St. John's Red Storm	74c	680.37$503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.39	2,003	53.7%1,076 W · 927 L	+101.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed St. John's Red Storm	58c	550.36$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.77	190	57.4%109 W · 81 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Xavier Musketeers	55c	534.34$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.03	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c03…811ebacked St. John's Red Storm	33c	504.4$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.19	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked St. John's Red Storm	77c	434$334 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.82	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f5…8be3backed Xavier Musketeers	23c	434$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.82	127	33.9%43 W · 84 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Xavier Musketeers	54c	370.82$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.72	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67a8…1f1ebacked Xavier Musketeers	29c	344.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed St. John's Red Storm	72c	331.57$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.97	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Xavier Musketeers	65c	308.79$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	940	36.9%347 W · 593 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e44…94fabacked Xavier Musketeers	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked St. John's Red Storm	69c	283.01$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.43	1,531	50.1%767 W · 764 L	+34.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Xavier Musketeers	36c	275.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.7	668	31.4%210 W · 458 L	-43.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-23%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d3…0abbbacked Xavier Musketeers	40c	250.75$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked St. John's Red Storm	77c	250$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.5	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed St. John's Red Storm	77c	250$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.5	401	47.6%191 W · 210 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Xavier Musketeers	42c	241.66$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.5	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked St. John's Red Storm	27c	201.43$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.43	365	35.9%131 W · 234 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Xavier Musketeers	60c	200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	192	38.5%74 W · 118 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Xavier Musketeers	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	170	62.9%107 W · 63 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e82…47d5backed Xavier Musketeers	28c	187.31$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.03	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed St. John's Red Storm	60c	184$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.53	722	48.8%352 W · 370 L	-23.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf3…a5cebacked Xavier Musketeers	25c	171.89$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.18	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.23per pick	37cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Xavier Musketeers	32c	158.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.18	1,983	26.4%523 W · 1,460 L	-55.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Xavier Musketeers	29c	130.64$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.51	294	42.9%126 W · 168 L	-11.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7e…f17dbacked Xavier Musketeers	20c	130$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Xavier Musketeers	18c	121.57$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	558	40.3%225 W · 333 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Xavier Musketeers	45c	111.32$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.23	193	32.1%62 W · 131 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed St. John's Red Storm	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	253	25.3%64 W · 189 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked St. John's Red Storm	77c	103.2$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.74	225	52.9%119 W · 106 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d9b…fababacked Xavier Musketeers	76c	101.22$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	76cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Xavier Musketeers	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	1,667	36.4%607 W · 1,060 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88d2…f50abacked Xavier Musketeers	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf121…6903backed St. John's Red Storm	53c	97.74$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.82	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf7…91bebacked St. John's Red Storm	27c	84.81$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.78	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fec…1e35backed Xavier Musketeers	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x873d…97b5backed Xavier Musketeers	40c	81.49$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	73	24.7%18 W · 55 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-27%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed St. John's Red Storm	39c	76.11$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.56	179	43.6%78 W · 101 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Xavier Musketeers	24c	69.31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.41	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Xavier Musketeers	39c	69.21$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.31	4,382	40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L	+23.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ad…8b71backed Xavier Musketeers	68c	65.88$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	-8.1wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xacbc…e374backed Xavier Musketeers	68c	60.46$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-3.0wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Xavier Musketeers	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2,194	33.4%733 W · 1,461 L	+19.2wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a11…de7cbacked Xavier Musketeers	62c	48.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4bc…963cbacked St. John's Red Storm	80c	48$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	58	69%40 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	71cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55f…ce65backed St. John's Red Storm	64c	40$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.3	24	70.8%17 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed Xavier Musketeers	78c	38.12$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	299	54.2%162 W · 137 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xba68…39d7backed St. John's Red Storm	51c	35.89$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.66	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Xavier Musketeers	76c	35$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	998	48.4%483 W · 515 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf2…37cfbacked St. John's Red Storm	67c	31.16$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.28	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed St. John's Red Storm	44c	30.23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.81	200	51.5%103 W · 97 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x035f…b2ccbacked Xavier Musketeers	75c	16.03$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9653…e514backed Xavier Musketeers	79c	13.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.79per pick	79cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

St. John's Red Storm vs. Xavier Musketeersthis page
St. John's Red Storm vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 161.5Over won
St. John's Red Storm vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 162.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

St. John's Red Storm vs. Xavier Musketeers

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event