NFL · resolved market

Rams vs. Falcons: 1H Moneyline

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30cee3009e63ecf29e0d23ca2b58c9a028368b9415e6f49cab82bad89666088a

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Falconsof Rams, Falcons
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,724 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xedb1…819ebacked Rams	69c	2,601$1,795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,795	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	74cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Falcons	32c	1,678$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,148.26	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Falcons	31c	862.14$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$595.44	397	54.4%216 W · 181 L	+26.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed Rams	74c	536.17$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.72	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Falcons	31c	525$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362	103	53.4%55 W · 48 L	+7.9wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed Rams	69c	432.86$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	52	65.4%34 W · 18 L	+5.1wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Falcons	43c	421.73$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.5	154	46.8%72 W · 82 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Falcons	31c	300$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Falcons	54c	215$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.9	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95bc…9f00backed Rams	46c	200$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	129	45%58 W · 71 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46ed…cfa6backed Rams	49c	148.05$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	122	50%61 W · 61 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb49c…3902backed Falcons	35c	133.51$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.78	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.4wins	+0.40per pick	43cpaid	+103.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Rams	65c	133.51$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.78	194	39.2%76 W · 118 L	-11.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b23…39fdbacked Falcons	33c	105.84$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.56	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Rams	66c	99.97$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.98	143	66.4%95 W · 48 L	+13.0wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Falcons	31c	88.49$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.06	83	49.4%41 W · 42 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Falcons	32c	82.93$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.39	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Falcons	32c	71$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.28	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da9…3144backed Rams	39c	64.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1a…d0c8backed Rams	68c	58.82$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Falcons	31c	54.23$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.42	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Rams	68c	50$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-4.6wins	-0.17per pick	58cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Falcons	32c	49.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	66	51.5%34 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Rams	23c	49.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	310	32.6%101 W · 209 L	-8.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5514…72bdbacked Rams	68c	37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	12	91.7%11 W · 1 L	+4.0wins	+0.34per pick	58cpaid	+90.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcd44…2a19backed Rams	69c	28.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	55.4%41 W · 33 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Rams	68c	26$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.25per pick	55cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cdb…ae41backed Rams	68c	24$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0aae…e845backed Rams	68c	21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+50.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60e6…89e4backed Rams	69c	17.35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-3.3wins	-0.30per pick	58cpaid	-59%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Rams vs. Falcons: 1H Moneyline

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event