NFL · resolved market
Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d44bb678604b327fcd7f003de977b05beb6e38fb7909a1d742b1ccc4bfeece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x801e…ad90backed Under | 51c | 35,344$18,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,181.91 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 35,224$17,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,116.04 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,499.99 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 55c | 9,708$5,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,339.36 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 45c | 9,201$4,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,060.55 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Over | 44c | 4,826$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,702.53 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Under | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 3,180$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.8 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Under | 55c | 2,555$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.25 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 55c | 2,326$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.3 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 1,443$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.65 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Over | 45c | 1,050$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.5 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 56c | 744$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.64 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 55c | 551.41$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.28 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…78cfbacked Over | 45c | 441.71$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 56c | 397.77$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.75 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 377.74$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.65 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 55c | 269.29$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.11 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Under | 56c | 242.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7551…b6b1backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 213.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 55c | 122.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 15c | 91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…d4e3backed Under | 58c | 51.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…5160backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…6779backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -90%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 50.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rams (-3.5)Falcons won
- 1H Spread: Rams (-4.5)Falcons won
- Falcons Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Rams vs. FalconsFalcons won
- Rams vs. Falcons: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Rams vs. Falcons: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5Over won
- Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 46.5Over won
- Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 47.5Over won
- Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 48.5Over won
- Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 49.5Over won
- Rams vs. Falcons: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-10.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Rams (-7.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Rams (-8.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.