Other European Leagues · resolved market
Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31664a2a62007d7ada3e86706523a943154a829f80824629742965967cede0af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 55c | 13,045$7,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,883.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 12,983$5,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,842.35 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 6,572$3,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,251.99 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 55c | 4,981$2,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 4,659$2,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,388.66 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 2,822$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.95 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 2,587$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.57 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…3fbabacked Under | 28c | 1,495$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 52c | 1,262$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.3 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 24c | 1,184$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 32c | 877.83$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 27c | 695.02$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.65 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 44c | 584.61$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.03 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Under | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 67c | 388.5$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.85 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 75c | 336.33$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 122 | 61.5%75 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Under | 57c | 313.6$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 17c | 295.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.36 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 72c | 292.38$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 25c | 159.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 74c | 152.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Under | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 30c | 117.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 107.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 31c | 101.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 56c | 66.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 30c | 59.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 41c | 59.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cca…69d2backed Under | 70c | 58.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 46c | 48.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 48.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 59c | 37.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 69c | 36.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 74c | 29.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 39c | 27.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 109 | 29.4%32 W · 77 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…e4c8backed Over | 47c | 25.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…6eebbacked Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab4…f8c6backed Under | 70c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5this page
- Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Over won
- Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Estoril Praia (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Estoril Praia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.