Fifa International · resolved market
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31c4c903f4060b82dbc4f46a0b753921f973247169cc2726ebfa019990f8b155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Madeof Made, Missed
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Missed | 20c | 4,441$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f79…0307backed Made | 80c | 3,114$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.41 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Made | 78c | 1,962$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.71 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Missed | 22c | 550$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 335 | 55.5%186 W · 149 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Missed | 23c | 311.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5026…dde1backed Made | 77c | 285.71$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…d10abacked Missed | 26c | 281.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Missed | 22c | 260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Made | 77c | 223.81$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Made | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Missed | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…a647backed Made | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 133 | 72.9%97 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Missed | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Made | 73c | 105.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Missed | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Made | 77c | 92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Missed | 25c | 82.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed Missed | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…9f54backed Missed | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264a…c8b0backed Missed | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…178abacked Made | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed Made | 73c | 60.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Missed | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Missed | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Made | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…e37cbacked Made | 80c | 46.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Made | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 333 | 45.3%151 W · 182 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…3cc8backed Made | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…e621backed Made | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Made | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…90f4backed Made | 78c | 23.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Made | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035e…1e57backed Made | 77c | 15.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.