Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x327e25fed61571cbd4beb4fe2ad599d9fb118c5b77521fd3392ecb2c55162789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 1,420$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 1,236$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 1,003$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 70c | 428.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 407.7$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…ae71backed Yes | 30c | 377.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 368.6$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 278.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 33c | 270$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 38c | 266.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed Yes | 38c | 265.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 29c | 223.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 199.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 198.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 176.88$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 69c | 174$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 69c | 172.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 153.44$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 70c | 152.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 30c | 143.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 141.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 34c | 141$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 136$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…5835backed No | 76c | 130.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 25c | 121.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 33c | 103.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 101.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 98.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 77.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 66.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed Yes | 26c | 64.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked Yes | 26c | 60.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 32c | 60.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 56.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 55.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 53.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…85d4backed Yes | 34c | 51.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 50.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 49.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 36c | 47.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 46.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 45.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 67c | 44.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 42.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 32c | 40.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 29c | 39.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 32c | 37.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 33c | 37.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 31c | 35.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…e9cabacked No | 70c | 35.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 32.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 37c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…b366backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 28.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 28.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 25.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 57c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 20.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed No | 72c | 20.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 67c | 18.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 69c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.