Champions League · resolved market
PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x327f90246931e1b3b49bf27ca430a45a5156caee3d46f83c99a6850165c4f80c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AEKof PFK Levski Sofia, AEK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73bc…46cebacked PFK Levski Sofia | 32c | 22,988$7,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,322.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…67bcbacked AEK | 68c | 6,080$4,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…9397backed AEK | 70c | 5,355$3,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fce…6a98backed AEK | 68c | 4,500$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…ef2cbacked AEK | 68c | 2,362$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…3af9backed AEK | 68c | 2,341$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked PFK Levski Sofia | 29c | 2,010$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.52 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…5bf6backed AEK | 68c | 1,894$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PFK Levski Sofia | 30c | 1,700$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 704 | 46.3%326 W · 378 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed AEK | 68c | 1,224$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.72 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed PFK Levski Sofia | 32c | 969.2$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.14 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed PFK Levski Sofia | 32c | 943$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.76 | 497 | 51.9%258 W · 239 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed AEK | 68c | 695.28$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.49 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…5d0cbacked AEK | 68c | 691.18$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed AEK | 68c | 672.5$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.2 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed PFK Levski Sofia | 30c | 660.37$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe8…843fbacked AEK | 68c | 572.06$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked AEK | 68c | 518.31$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.77 | 428 | 50.2%215 W · 213 L | +25.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…45cebacked AEK | 68c | 513.41$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed AEK | 69c | 513.04$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.04 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7429…28b4backed AEK | 68c | 370.59$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed AEK | 68c | 324$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5540…9c18backed AEK | 68c | 311.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed PFK Levski Sofia | 31c | 299.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked AEK | 72c | 223.75$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…48ffbacked AEK | 68c | 213.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…79febacked AEK | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked PFK Levski Sofia | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed AEK | 68c | 184.86$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 358 | 32.7%117 W · 241 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8818…4f5abacked PFK Levski Sofia | 33c | 166.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9639…2a00backed PFK Levski Sofia | 19c | 145.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked AEK | 69c | 143.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 415 | 51.1%212 W · 203 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed AEK | 69c | 143.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 637 | 48.4%308 W · 329 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed AEK | 69c | 128.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 573 | 47.6%273 W · 300 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked PFK Levski Sofia | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked PFK Levski Sofia | 25c | 106.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed AEK | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed AEK | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 272 | 44.1%120 W · 152 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked PFK Levski Sofia | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed PFK Levski Sofia | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed PFK Levski Sofia | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7812…4bcdbacked AEK | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed PFK Levski Sofia | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…97f8backed PFK Levski Sofia | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e2…38febacked AEK | 69c | 78.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed PFK Levski Sofia | 32c | 78.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…b677backed AEK | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed PFK Levski Sofia | 17c | 72.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…9577backed PFK Levski Sofia | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed AEK | 68c | 67.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked AEK | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 535 | 46.7%250 W · 285 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…ded0backed PFK Levski Sofia | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…89a2backed PFK Levski Sofia | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked AEK | 67c | 61.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 517 | 46.2%239 W · 278 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed PFK Levski Sofia | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…9626backed AEK | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked PFK Levski Sofia | 30c | 52.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked AEK | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed PFK Levski Sofia | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 329 | 55.9%184 W · 145 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed AEK | 69c | 48.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…93b9backed AEK | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa537…ec59backed AEK | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…6243backed PFK Levski Sofia | 33c | 38.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…6a7dbacked AEK | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…fe70backed AEK | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…b30abacked PFK Levski Sofia | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9001…4149backed PFK Levski Sofia | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2b…cfb1backed AEK | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7f…00e3backed AEK | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc00…f68fbacked AEK | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked AEK | 69c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed AEK | 68c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3aa…ab99backed AEK | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed AEK | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed AEK | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…5eb6backed AEK | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: Team to Advancethis page
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: AEK O/U 0.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: AEK O/U 1.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: O/U 0.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: O/U 1.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: O/U 2.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: O/U 3.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: O/U 4.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: O/U 5.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5Under won
- PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)PFK Levski Sofia won
- Spread: AEK (-2.5)PFK Levski Sofia won
- Spread: PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5)AEK won
- Spread: PFK Levski Sofia (-2.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.