Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO1)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32b44057c8c5e5862b8c07b8d0f056508d6563fb40771d5f91a6950ff455ea47

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heroicof Heroic, Natus Vincere
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $117,426
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $134,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,426 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7f76…3e05backed Heroic	56c	24,047$13,571 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,475.46	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	-4.0wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Natus Vincere	43c	15,455$6,645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,645.47	228	48.2%110 W · 118 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere	44c	7,495$3,317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,316.8	338	50.9%172 W · 166 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere	51c	6,090$3,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,123.27	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Heroic	62c	5,542$3,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,101.86	190	47.9%91 W · 99 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Heroic	55c	4,989$2,743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,246.1	276	45.3%125 W · 151 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Natus Vincere	45c	3,308$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	161	49.7%80 W · 81 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Natus Vincere	76c	2,500$1,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,900	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Natus Vincere	46c	2,337$1,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,075.01	130	45.4%59 W · 71 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere	43c	2,291$984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$984.07	557	51.7%288 W · 269 L	+16.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heroic	37c	2,074$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,306.11	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7b…c33ebacked Natus Vincere	44c	2,002$881 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$881	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Heroic	57c	1,767$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$766.91	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Heroic	58c	1,736$999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$737.63	62	61.3%38 W · 24 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere	38c	1,685$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.29	858	51.3%440 W · 418 L	+30.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2839…0efebacked Natus Vincere	60c	1,612$962 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$962	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Heroic	57c	1,356$772 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$583.32	464	51.5%239 W · 225 L	-12.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Heroic	46c	1,311$598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$713.34	179	50.3%90 W · 89 L	+14.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Heroic	58c	1,249$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$524.76	115	57.4%66 W · 49 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed Natus Vincere	44c	1,201$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.58	78	55.1%43 W · 35 L	+6.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere	38c	1,200$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456	218	47.2%103 W · 115 L	+16.5wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Natus Vincere	47c	1,100$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked Natus Vincere	68c	1,097$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.77	49	67.3%33 W · 16 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f7d…5769backed Natus Vincere	45c	1,020$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.92	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed Heroic	53c	1,006$533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$472.82	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heroic	58c	999.99$575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425	804	43.9%353 W · 451 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere	44c	958.33$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.67	894	40.3%360 W · 534 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b25…b5ccbacked Heroic	56c	894.52$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393.59	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.36per pick	50cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Heroic	41c	837.94$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495.94	153	45.8%70 W · 83 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere	43c	774.43$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.83	605	42.6%258 W · 347 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab0…2fe9backed Natus Vincere	60c	733.93$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.75	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	62cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed Heroic	52c	731.73$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.87	121	47.9%58 W · 63 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Natus Vincere	52c	701$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.52	141	21.3%30 W · 111 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked Natus Vincere	5c	700.69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.03	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Natus Vincere	35c	641.26$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	86	27.9%24 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Heroic	56c	600$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264	206	42.2%87 W · 119 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Heroic	59c	552.9$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.18	235	46.8%110 W · 125 L	+10.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	0%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Natus Vincere	55c	529.34$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.68	380	49.2%187 W · 193 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+168.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Natus Vincere	41c	523.11$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.74	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Natus Vincere	58c	508.82$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.08	234	65%152 W · 82 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Natus Vincere	44c	503.5$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.54	544	45.8%249 W · 295 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Natus Vincere	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Natus Vincere	43c	489.91$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	70	60%42 W · 28 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x221f…d868backed Heroic	68c	477.56$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.75	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	40cpaid	+86.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Natus Vincere	61c	474.7$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.57	612	49.7%304 W · 308 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Heroic	55c	456.35$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.35	436	47.5%207 W · 229 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0050…2eb8backed Natus Vincere	44c	454.55$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere	44c	454.55$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	606	46.9%284 W · 322 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01db…16e3backed Natus Vincere	15c	453.56$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.56	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Heroic	62c	426.19$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.95	197	43.1%85 W · 112 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Natus Vincere	31c	417.03$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.81	145	37.2%54 W · 91 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8942…9ea9backed Natus Vincere	53c	412.13$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Heroic	55c	400$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182	156	53.2%83 W · 73 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Heroic	54c	395$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.7	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Natus Vincere	52c	392.62$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.63	39	25.6%10 W · 29 L	-5.3wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere	45c	390.71$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.82	199	43.2%86 W · 113 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Heroic	55c	363.55$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.55	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Natus Vincere	44c	360$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.4	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Heroic	53c	355.9$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.85	376	32.2%121 W · 255 L	-13.5wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Heroic	57c	350.88$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.88	90	54.4%49 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic	49c	335.17$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.65	628	41.1%258 W · 370 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ea…6f62backed Natus Vincere	73c	300$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.81	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Natus Vincere	58c	298$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.84	79	35.4%28 W · 51 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e08…3d14backed Natus Vincere	44c	293.8$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Heroic	53c	288.99$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.83	142	51.4%73 W · 69 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Natus Vincere	52c	288.99$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.47	98	38.8%38 W · 60 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Heroic	35c	280$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182	641	49.9%320 W · 321 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Natus Vincere	42c	266.49$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.59	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Heroic	58c	260$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.2	315	45.4%143 W · 172 L	-19.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Natus Vincere	5c	255.19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	64	60.9%39 W · 25 L	+5.8wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bd3…7e19backed Natus Vincere	46c	210$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere	37c	207.45$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.57	869	49%426 W · 443 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Natus Vincere	50c	204.49$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.83	168	35.7%60 W · 108 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf5d…e164backed Heroic	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Heroic	40c	187.34$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.74	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Heroic	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	81	60.5%49 W · 32 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed Natus Vincere	55c	182.06$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.42	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Heroic	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	225	38.7%87 W · 138 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Heroic	56c	179$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere	61c	175$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.75	592	50.5%299 W · 293 L	-20.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Natus Vincere	12c	173.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	83	30.1%25 W · 58 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked Heroic	54c	172.22$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Heroic	37c	170$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.9	106	61.3%65 W · 41 L	+10.4wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Heroic	79c	160$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.81	180	75%135 W · 45 L	+18.8wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5134…90f6backed Natus Vincere	64c	159.38$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x210b…8a57backed Natus Vincere	14c	158.4$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Natus Vincere	62c	155$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.1	192	46.4%89 W · 103 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8aa…0ae3backed Natus Vincere	57c	152.77$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.08	43	69.8%30 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	67cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b00…7cbbbacked Natus Vincere	46c	149.98$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.99	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere	45c	141.4$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.63	118	55.1%65 W · 53 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b04…6632backed Natus Vincere	16c	138.15$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Heroic	56c	130$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.2	119	43.7%52 W · 67 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Natus Vincere	77c	130$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.7	97	56.7%55 W · 42 L	+9.5wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Heroic	53c	125.65$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.06	341	54.5%186 W · 155 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeea7…8fd2backed Heroic	59c	124.11$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.11	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Natus Vincere	43c	115.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.86	112	53.6%60 W · 52 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x020b…ddfabacked Natus Vincere	43c	110$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.3	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e27…8e34backed Natus Vincere	48c	110$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2495…28f5backed Natus Vincere	59c	109.95$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.87	91	61.5%56 W · 35 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Natus Vincere	56c	107.95$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	134	50.7%68 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO1)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market