World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32c1416ab4a73296c9d19905d8063c5fd58bfcfcda76d583797d69d70cd7e379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 1c | 3,646$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…cc11backed No | 1c | 2,860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 7c | 2,294$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…2628backed No | 5c | 2,219$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 3c | 2,045$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 2c | 1,532$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 2c | 1,320$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 4c | 943.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 919$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 70c | 848.54$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 5c | 766.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 19c | 558.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 524.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bef…9e21backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 13c | 433.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 421.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9d…ea34backed Yes | 74c | 320$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 16c | 313$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 270.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked No | 17c | 179.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 25c | 140.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 23c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 26c | 137$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 78c | 133.74$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…3c5ebacked Yes | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 71.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed No | 28c | 66.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 31c | 65.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 52.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 24c | 42.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…44ffbacked Yes | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 37c | 34.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…518bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 67c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…3435backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.