South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: CF América (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32c994423d2edbe4d2ee9ce18c1d2a3e968c168c5cfbf02005e8ad9adebbb83d

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: CF Américaof CF América, Club Santos Laguna
Resolved: Aug 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $118,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,917 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf5f9…87b0backed Club Santos Laguna	52c	90,581$47,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47,439.15	183	52.5%96 W · 87 L	+10.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6bf…8380backed CF América	48c	16,400$7,808 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,592	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked CF América	47c	16,170$7,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,490.21	75	56%42 W · 33 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked CF América	48c	12,547$6,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,545.74	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked CF América	47c	12,192$5,791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,401.16	58	50%29 W · 29 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed CF América	60c	4,936$2,959 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,977.4	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed CF América	44c	4,153$1,826 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,327.13	347	47.6%165 W · 182 L	+17.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked CF América	47c	4,000$1,880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,120	72	44.4%32 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed CF América	48c	3,827$1,837 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,990.25	127	55.1%70 W · 57 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Club Santos Laguna	42c	3,774$1,575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,574.81	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed CF América	44c	3,617$1,591 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,025.52	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e5…9105backed CF América	47c	2,766$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,465.96	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x180e…b3a6backed Club Santos Laguna	56c	2,386$1,338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,337.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed CF América	48c	2,342$1,123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,219.12	2,335	51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed CF América	47c	2,300$1,091 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,209.18	1,282	53.7%689 W · 593 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed CF América	48c	2,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	248	55.2%137 W · 111 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed CF América	47c	1,964$923 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040.66	668	37.1%248 W · 420 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Club Santos Laguna	56c	1,553$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$869.68	2,514	39%980 W · 1,534 L	-32.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked CF América	48c	1,250$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$655.33	1,231	53.9%663 W · 568 L	+12.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked CF América	47c	1,156$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$612.8	491	36.3%178 W · 313 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Club Santos Laguna	1c	1,134$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	824	34.5%284 W · 540 L	-17.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed CF América	48c	999.09$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.53	1,944	51.3%998 W · 946 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x851b…961ebacked Club Santos Laguna	45c	883.03$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401	61	31.1%19 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed CF América	50c	815$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$407.5	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	57cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Club Santos Laguna	16c	775$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Club Santos Laguna	46c	712.09$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.53	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Club Santos Laguna	55c	604.13$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.27	1,355	49.7%674 W · 681 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed CF América	47c	458$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.88	382	33%126 W · 256 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed CF América	48c	416.66$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.66	101	46.5%47 W · 54 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed CF América	48c	400$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208	195	59.5%116 W · 79 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed CF América	51c	386.56$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.41	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed CF América	48c	368$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.36	224	57.1%128 W · 96 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Club Santos Laguna	23c	353.83$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.06	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed CF América	48c	344.82$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.31	559	46%257 W · 302 L	-19.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Club Santos Laguna	17c	273.65$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.32	256	35.9%92 W · 164 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x743c…c386backed CF América	48c	270.83$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.83	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.35per pick	31cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed CF América	62c	256.51$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.46	464	49.6%230 W · 234 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed CF América	61c	256.33$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.85	331	52.6%174 W · 157 L	+8.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked CF América	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	249	56.6%141 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed CF América	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	213	58.7%125 W · 88 L	+7.1wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed CF América	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	230	56.5%130 W · 100 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Club Santos Laguna	52c	199.99$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	288	51.7%149 W · 139 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed CF América	53c	199.45$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.94	552	50.2%277 W · 275 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Club Santos Laguna	53c	195.32$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.18	1,302	50.2%653 W · 649 L	-13.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked CF América	51c	193.71$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.92	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a09…ab7ebacked CF América	51c	186.25$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.26	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…002fbacked CF América	58c	172.41$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.41	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked CF América	47c	172$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.61	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+7.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5998…b5a8backed Club Santos Laguna	18c	165.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+6.0wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0962…6e40backed CF América	64c	157.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.08	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed CF América	46c	140.09$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.65	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked CF América	48c	134$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.68	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb42…176ebacked CF América	45c	133.33$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.33	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked CF América	45c	133.33$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.33	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed CF América	53c	127.59$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.04	694	53.5%371 W · 323 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed CF América	52c	120.91$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.48	506	56.3%285 W · 221 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd301…f176backed CF América	45c	111.11$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.11	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.25per pick	42cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed CF América	45c	108.7$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.79	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked CF América	45c	108.7$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.79	98	60.2%59 W · 39 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed CF América	47c	101.06$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.06	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed CF América	47c	83.77$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.23	232	53%123 W · 109 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82fb…0b6ebacked CF América	45c	80$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	91	58.2%53 W · 38 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…6555backed CF América	58c	66.2$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.66	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac48…e505backed CF América	58c	63.38$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.62	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed CF América	53c	57.04$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.05	65	43.1%28 W · 37 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed CF América	47c	55.68$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.48	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-5.7wins	-0.22per pick	49cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked CF América	62c	51.22$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.24	104	58.7%61 W · 43 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked CF América	33c	50$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.5	186	31.2%58 W · 128 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7a9fbacked CF América	64c	45.02$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.39	43	72.1%31 W · 12 L	+5.9wins	+0.14per pick	58cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x193b…f6ecbacked Club Santos Laguna	53c	45.02$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.86	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b34…1ca6backed CF América	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked CF América	41c	40$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.8	506	43.9%222 W · 284 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked CF América	34c	40$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	350	46.3%162 W · 188 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed CF América	48c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.8	242	57%138 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde36…f41cbacked CF América	45c	35.36$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.45	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked CF América	53c	32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.91	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4db…e401backed Club Santos Laguna	56c	30.36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-4.1wins	-0.32per pick	55cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x97d4…7b65backed CF América	48c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Club Santos Laguna	55c	29.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	2,611	54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L	+25.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Club Santos Laguna	53c	26.51$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	145	63.4%92 W · 53 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62e8…a242backed CF América	61c	25.04$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.79	67	68.7%46 W · 21 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	60cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Club Santos Laguna	53c	24.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked CF América	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	153	59.5%91 W · 62 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed CF América	78c	19.82$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.29	412	62.1%256 W · 156 L	+13.7wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed Club Santos Laguna	56c	18.36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	93	50.5%47 W · 46 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: CF América (-1.5)this page
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: CF América O/U 0.5Over won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: CF América O/U 1.5Over won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: Club Santos Laguna 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: Club Santos Laguna 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: Club Santos Laguna O/U 0.5Under won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: Club Santos Laguna O/U 2.5Under won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 0.5Over won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 1.5Over won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 2.5Over won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 3.5Under won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 4.5Under won
CF América vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: CF América (-2.5)CF América won
Spread: Club Santos Laguna (-1.5)CF América won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: CF América (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event