TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,379

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,379 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa98…90bbbacked No58c886.4$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.481030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes42c543.76$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.975139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c412.65$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe68c…779dbacked Yes10c348.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.44843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes42c321.84$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.654228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed No66c305$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.71735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf657…f8d0backed Yes48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No59c284.1$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes45c270.04$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2256118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes45c254.92$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.241,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No57c250.21$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.212,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes6c240.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.921,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c221.24$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…767cbacked Yes5c214.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No60c199.99$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes20c166.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3313215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes44c165$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.68153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No61c151.38$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.661,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes38c146.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5540935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes14c141.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5159818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes10c135.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.542,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501c…34d8backed Yes41c123.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes44c111.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5811546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No55c109.78$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.49250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes28c103.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.541,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No59c103.53$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.772,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes35c100.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.553,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011025.5%28 W · 82 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9423633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No56c93.04$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0135323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c92.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No55c92.39$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.481,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No62c88.5$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8527756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c85.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed No59c84.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.738431%26 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes34c82.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2832548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes42c71.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No53c69.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.71,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes41c68.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2842438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No62c65.61$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.664,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes48c62.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdef7…2978backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277319.2%14 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71b5…d067backed Yes44c59.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.338246.3%38 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No52c59.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.923,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes35c55.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3358732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No56c54.92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9720459.8%122 W · 82 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee7…27e4backed Yes44c52.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.532133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2b…aa1dbacked No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cdc…cb42backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a7…20fbbacked No65c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No58c49.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.215558.1%90 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes45c48.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.822944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes42c48.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No52c47.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.681,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No56c45.89$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.173,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd88…8bcabacked Yes38c44.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.991747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes26c43.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.567518.7%14 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No64c38.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.971,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c37.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.165,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.33351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+49.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No61c32.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No64c32.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.691,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes41c31.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.957140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes64c31.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed No57c30.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2145236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes36c30.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.948124.7%20 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126352.4%33 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes44c29.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311172.1%80 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No59c28.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.948160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ea…b603backed Yes56c27.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.77922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fec…be3dbacked No59c25.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.419056.7%51 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c23.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.287,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No44c22.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7316639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c20.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No66c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.851,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No65c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.619058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bdf…41dfbacked No76c15.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.824344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No80c13.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.6510154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.