TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Athens Open: Clara Tauson vs Nao Hibino

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Clara Tausonof Clara Tauson, Nao Hibino
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,736 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd849…6ac7backed Clara Tauson79c22,356$17,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,718.349962.6%62 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nao Hibino19c16,698$3,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,134.188,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Nao Hibino21c15,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.9937450%187 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Clara Tauson79c8,772$6,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.8856651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Nao Hibino32c6,509$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.941251%210 W · 202 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Nao Hibino20c5,783$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.813,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Nao Hibino6c5,511$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.664,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Nao Hibino17c4,577$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.334,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Clara Tauson72c4,311$3,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.6293740.6%380 W · 557 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Nao Hibino21c3,542$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Clara Tauson77c3,324$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nao Hibino17c2,997$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.748,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Clara Tauson80c2,419$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.524,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c50…e0c9backed Nao Hibino34c1,986$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.3842131.6%133 W · 288 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Nao Hibino20c1,823$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.53,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Nao Hibino12c1,645$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.134,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nao Hibino30c1,505$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.856,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Nao Hibino18c1,457$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.256,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Nao Hibino32c1,094$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Nao Hibino22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22026546.4%123 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Clara Tauson80c937.5$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.538066.3%252 W · 128 L-0.7wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d47…64eebacked Nao Hibino22c900$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1987728.6%22 W · 55 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Clara Tauson79c873.86$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.512,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed Nao Hibino21c861.76$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Nao Hibino19c815$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.852,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fb…acbabacked Clara Tauson80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0525764.6%166 W · 91 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed Clara Tauson79c759.76$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.7638557.1%220 W · 165 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Nao Hibino17c718.89$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.453,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Nao Hibino11c642.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.852,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Clara Tauson80c601.7$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3461152.2%319 W · 292 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Nao Hibino21c599.98$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.497,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1850…8903backed Clara Tauson80c584.44$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.892864.3%18 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed Nao Hibino18c545.92$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8417224.4%42 W · 130 L-16.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nao Hibino22c505$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.13,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Nao Hibino19c500$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.532333.7%109 W · 214 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Nao Hibino21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030542.6%130 W · 175 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Nao Hibino6c423$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.382,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Nao Hibino20c417$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.472638.8%282 W · 444 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Nao Hibino21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Clara Tauson77c399.99$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916467.2%43 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Clara Tauson67c396$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.324,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Clara Tauson79c327.19$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.714,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Clara Tauson78c320.51$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.511,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Nao Hibino20c315.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3999249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Nao Hibino21c314.3$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.831,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Nao Hibino35c304.03$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.411,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Nao Hibino21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Clara Tauson77c297.24$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3748941.1%201 W · 288 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5940…94c8backed Nao Hibino19c273.35$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.17930.4%24 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Nao Hibino25c270.56$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.641,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Nao Hibino16c268.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.036,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nao Hibino15c262.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.482,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dae…c996backed Clara Tauson80c245.48$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.11942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cdd…db30backed Nao Hibino33c227.27$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7518724.6%46 W · 141 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nao Hibino24c212$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.512,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Nao Hibino29c206.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6018829.8%56 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Clara Tauson70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6052739.3%207 W · 320 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Nao Hibino22c155.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.832,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Clara Tauson76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5884857.4%487 W · 361 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Nao Hibino19c126.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Nao Hibino34c124.62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9943444.9%195 W · 239 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Nao Hibino21c118$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1932546.2%150 W · 175 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Nao Hibino16c103.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5576355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Nao Hibino20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6783447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Nao Hibino23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc951…e212backed Nao Hibino14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a1…1c91backed Clara Tauson60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4020360.1%122 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Nao Hibino25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.13,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Nao Hibino21c90.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.091,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Nao Hibino20c80.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1455748.8%272 W · 285 L+23.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x626d…e570backed Nao Hibino21c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.852035.2%183 W · 337 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nao Hibino30c79.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.781,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Nao Hibino20c78.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9348245.6%220 W · 262 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e7…3a0bbacked Nao Hibino21c77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Clara Tauson76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7994255.8%526 W · 416 L+19.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Nao Hibino28c65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.231,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed Nao Hibino30c64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.227550.2%138 W · 137 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Clara Tauson79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2978152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef9…11b4backed Clara Tauson80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.516467.7%111 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd169…8ff6backed Clara Tauson58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.228437.3%106 W · 178 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c60…01febacked Clara Tauson79c56.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6920655.3%114 W · 92 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Clara Tauson80c50.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1023581.7%192 W · 43 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick80cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Nao Hibino27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Nao Hibino21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Nao Hibino30c49.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8555149.7%274 W · 277 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Clara Tauson75c49.32$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.331,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nao Hibino27c47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6326746.1%123 W · 144 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e71…5dd9backed Nao Hibino41c45.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.723363.6%21 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56d…3658backed Nao Hibino35c43.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2715950.3%80 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4462…bfdfbacked Nao Hibino29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6618147%85 W · 96 L-24.1wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-24.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x09cd…9502backed Clara Tauson79c39.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1912552%65 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Clara Tauson80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630554.4%166 W · 139 L-1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d71…ca3ebacked Clara Tauson71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.712656.3%71 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04c7…2d60backed Clara Tauson79c26.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4510456.7%59 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…6761backed Clara Tauson75c25.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Clara Tauson77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.481,02554%554 W · 471 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Clara Tauson70c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.797852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62f…1781backed Clara Tauson78c14.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1326664.7%172 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x602e…4630backed Clara Tauson80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.