Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x390eee6819f8f542bf9753e4be2fdb9111533de5071e6d7dd99a1d2a967e53c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 28c | 14,300$4,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,283.21 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 74c | 10,208$7,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,646.45 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 15c | 5,760$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.1 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 15c | 5,248$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.28 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 54c | 3,270$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.18 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 72c | 2,212$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.48 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 2,188$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.37 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 41c | 1,635$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.73 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 1,511$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.79 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 67c | 1,100$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.17 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…ee5bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,056$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 998.65$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.03 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 23c | 990.94$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 72c | 939.75$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.62 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 55c | 897.6$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.14 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 763.96$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.69 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 72c | 736$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.92 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 656.58$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.31 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 549.36$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.54 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 501.46$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.39 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 29c | 465.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.19 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 72c | 381$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.32 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 289$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.08 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 72c | 184.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 173$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 72c | 163$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…a647backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 20c | 119.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 72c | 116$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 35c | 100.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 28c | 97.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 69c | 69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 63c | 67.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed No | 74c | 54.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 35c | 53.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…c372backed Yes | 26c | 52.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 72c | 49.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…9b3ebacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed No | 69c | 21.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 73c | 21.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed No | 72c | 20.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 70cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed No | 69c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 72c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 72c | 18.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 71c | 16.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +12.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed No | 73c | 15.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka end in a draw?this page
- Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-08-13?No won
- Will Ilves Tampere win on 2026-08-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.