Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3918ce5d22487a3d93a343bf872fbf84b2afb32f097804cfaf14d459581fbd51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $496,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $614,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $496,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 282 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Team Liquid | 33c | 116,205$38,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,476.86 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora | 65c | 73,659$48,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,658.81 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora | 63c | 28,828$18,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,698.68 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Aurora | 67c | 25,230$16,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,427.76 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Liquid | 37c | 24,052$8,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,872.66 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora | 71c | 21,867$15,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,339.57 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 64c | 15,554$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,554.25 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 11,597$4,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,136.24 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid | 36c | 11,362$4,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,089.12 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid | 15c | 11,206$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.2 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Team Liquid | 33c | 10,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.96 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid | 16c | 9,898$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.43 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Team Liquid | 35c | 8,509$2,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.72 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Aurora | 72c | 8,454$6,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.95 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b38…1dccbacked Team Liquid | 33c | 8,360$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid | 17c | 8,127$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.09 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…fdc1backed Team Liquid | 33c | 7,500$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Team Liquid | 35c | 7,406$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,618.98 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid | 17c | 7,282$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.36 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Team Liquid | 38c | 6,000$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.49 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…71c4backed Aurora | 77c | 5,065$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.94 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…664fbacked Aurora | 68c | 5,017$3,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.38 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Team Liquid | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.98 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Team Liquid | 36c | 4,916$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.76 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…f907backed Aurora | 62c | 4,528$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.78 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -13.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Team Liquid | 38c | 4,471$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.56 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Team Liquid | 34c | 4,411$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.26 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora | 66c | 4,000$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked Aurora | 72c | 3,747$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.54 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed Team Liquid | 34c | 3,388$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.43 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora | 66c | 3,200$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…26a1backed Aurora | 64c | 3,070$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.11 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410e…637ebacked Aurora | 64c | 2,993$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid | 11c | 2,876$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.86 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b3…9441backed Aurora | 62c | 2,800$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Team Liquid | 12c | 2,744$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.27 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Aurora | 67c | 2,563$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.21 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 63c | 2,551$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.25 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…c200backed Team Liquid | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Liquid | 38c | 2,500$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora | 63c | 2,381$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.95 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…5726backed Aurora | 64c | 2,346$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.61 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Liquid | 11c | 2,193$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.83 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Aurora | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aec…4ce9backed Team Liquid | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 306 | 67.3%206 W · 100 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Team Liquid | 32c | 1,887$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.96 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Team Liquid | 22c | 1,835$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.99 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Aurora | 63c | 1,730$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.16 | 223 | 40.4%90 W · 133 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Aurora | 66c | 1,665$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.29 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…281fbacked Team Liquid | 33c | 1,660$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Liquid | 22c | 1,646$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.59 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…35a3backed Aurora | 62c | 1,623$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.65 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Aurora | 76c | 1,578$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.03 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…698cbacked Aurora | 63c | 1,551$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.43 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Liquid | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Team Liquid | 34c | 1,500$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.5 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Aurora | 66c | 1,458$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.04 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…d152backed Team Liquid | 38c | 1,413$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.21 | 211 | 58.3%123 W · 88 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Aurora | 65c | 1,374$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.26 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Team Liquid | 32c | 1,368$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.9 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Aurora | 63c | 1,357$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.54 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Team Liquid | 34c | 1,300$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.87 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a53…dfefbacked Team Liquid | 39c | 1,290$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Team Liquid | 33c | 1,250$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.5 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Team Liquid | 3c | 1,250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14c…23a1backed Team Liquid | 40c | 1,218$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.47 | 351 | 51.3%180 W · 171 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 63c | 1,148$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.8 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…c44ebacked Aurora | 64c | 1,145$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.37 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…ed1fbacked Team Liquid | 35c | 1,143$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…0c98backed Aurora | 77c | 1,118$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.07 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Team Liquid | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…eb0fbacked Aurora | 65c | 1,106$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.37 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +17.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…cb74backed Aurora | 67c | 1,045$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.78 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Team Liquid | 34c | 1,020$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.8 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Team Liquid | 37c | 1,012$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.3 | 271 | 53.5%145 W · 126 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Team Liquid | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Team Liquid | 15c | 998.66$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Team Liquid | 29c | 984.86$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.77 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…72e7backed Aurora | 64c | 950$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…51b8backed Aurora | 63c | 938.95$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.95 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Aurora | 66c | 920$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.8 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed Team Liquid | 34c | 906.82$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.32 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Liquid | 32c | 894.97$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.39 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…e2c4backed Aurora | 63c | 884.54$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.14 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…9a4abacked Team Liquid | 39c | 878.5$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.51 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked Team Liquid | 37c | 877.64$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.73 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Aurora | 64c | 875$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Liquid | 35c | 828.81$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.08 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8154…7d37backed Team Liquid | 27c | 828$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 202 | 33.2%67 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked Team Liquid | 14c | 800$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Aurora | 75c | 791.39$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.64 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid | 36c | 790.79$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.68 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb7…7028backed Team Liquid | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…5dc6backed Aurora | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Aurora | 64c | 760.03$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.35 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Team Liquid | 36c | 750$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.34 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 62c | 750$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Aurora | 65c | 703$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.05 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…aa6abacked Aurora | 63c | 700$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.5 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Team Liquid | 38c | 691.9$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.92 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.