World Politics · resolved market
Will Carney government pass a confidence vote before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39260c2150c755b69f303a945279ed8602066f42dad916e3c2bbe7fa1b77fbfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27af…58a1backed No | 70c | 7,404$5,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 64c | 6,249$3,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,968.88 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 57c | 6,054$3,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,454.34 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 8c | 5,521$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,076.69 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 21c | 5,390$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.36 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 19c | 5,213$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.98 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed No | 54c | 4,113$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.31 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 28c | 2,711$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.09 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 42c | 2,448$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.79 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd459…13f9backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 6c | 1,914$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…e17ebacked No | 22c | 1,754$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 6c | 1,319$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 1,015$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.42 | 553 | 34.5%191 W · 362 L | -38.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 14c | 908.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 26c | 835.53$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.29 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 77c | 826.34$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.81 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed No | 76c | 784.33$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 752.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed No | 8c | 595.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +297.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 64c | 578.48$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 20c | 550.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 11c | 462.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 404.01$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.57 | 1,344 | 44.3%595 W · 749 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 371.96$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 894 | 48.3%432 W · 462 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 77c | 345.19$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c88…383abacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…4cdbbacked No | 19c | 294.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a65…54e7backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…7b93backed No | 61c | 217.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 36c | 178.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd39…f528backed No | 80c | 178$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…bfe3backed No | 11c | 155.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 15c | 136.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 127.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 39c | 127.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 126.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked No | 10c | 110$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 23c | 106.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 78c | 102.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 79c | 66.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 67c | 59.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 71c | 45.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 52c | 38.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 68c | 34.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked Yes | 68c | 31.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa92…5a1ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…736cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked No | 73c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.