UFC · resolved market

UFC 322: McConico vs. Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a0462d2775285c8e44219fea5d486f09e2fed811c7762279afd08e3bf25b6b1

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Susurkaevof McConico, Susurkaev
Resolved: Nov 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $274,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $283,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,274 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9020…2cfcbacked McConico	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed McConico	11c	22,325$2,476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,475.72	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked McConico	9c	21,659$2,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,015.7	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ed…88eebacked McConico	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed McConico	9c	16,512$1,516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,516.37	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked McConico	10c	10,290$1,029 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed McConico	10c	10,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	82	20.7%17 W · 65 L	-12.6wins	-0.15per pick	36cpaid	-48%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked McConico	10c	9,602$919 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$919.31	210	44.8%94 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed McConico	22c	7,415$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600.05	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Susurkaev	77c	7,114$5,478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,636.3	78	53.8%42 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked McConico	11c	5,650$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked McConico	11c	5,030$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.3	101	49.5%50 W · 51 L	+5.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed McConico	10c	4,444$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.4	68	29.4%20 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed McConico	11c	4,050$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.5	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed McConico	10c	3,794$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.34	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed McConico	10c	3,200$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	331	32%106 W · 225 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked McConico	9c	2,877$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.93	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked McConico	10c	2,800$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Susurkaev	77c	2,732$2,108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$623.81	181	45.3%82 W · 99 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8628…6f0bbacked McConico	12c	2,161$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.3	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed McConico	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	202	33.7%68 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed McConico	1c	1,775$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	87	59.8%52 W · 35 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked McConico	10c	1,400$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.01	109	28.4%31 W · 78 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked McConico	11c	1,300$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	92	28.3%26 W · 66 L	-7.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Susurkaev	74c	1,219$896 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.5	309	64.7%200 W · 109 L	+24.5wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed McConico	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked McConico	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed McConico	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	137	35.8%49 W · 88 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked McConico	11c	999.94$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.99	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed McConico	10c	805.72$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.57	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked McConico	11c	770$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.7	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f4d…6055backed McConico	24c	765.86$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.87	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Susurkaev	61c	750$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-4.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0eb4…7a49backed McConico	9c	712.33$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked McConico	12c	679.24$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.6	151	39.7%60 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Susurkaev	75c	671.09$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.09	134	50%67 W · 67 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed McConico	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50f8…2042backed McConico	3c	599.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.20per pick	35cpaid	+62.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked McConico	19c	512.97$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.99	201	39.8%80 W · 121 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed McConico	10c	505$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	44	25%11 W · 33 L	-5.9wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb575…2090backed McConico	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked McConico	22c	457.47$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed McConico	11c	450$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	905	53.6%485 W · 420 L	+46.4wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked McConico	12c	393.85$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fe…01ecbacked McConico	13c	387.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f2…e9dabacked Susurkaev	75c	364$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.7wins	-0.30per pick	63cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked McConico	28c	351.72$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-10.5wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked McConico	13c	342.89$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.38	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec7e…eac8backed McConico	13c	342.67$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8d55…3ea8backed McConico	12c	341.67$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1247…9ce9backed McConico	14c	340$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed McConico	9c	313$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked McConico	11c	303$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	186	44.1%82 W · 104 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked McConico	8c	300$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed McConico	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	55.9%33 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed McConico	12c	213.42$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	194	18.6%36 W · 158 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked McConico	12c	202.25$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.27	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked McConico	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	264	51.9%137 W · 127 L	+23.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed McConico	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed McConico	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a0…68dfbacked McConico	11c	179.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked McConico	13c	170$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.76	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1482…4107backed McConico	13c	153.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34dc…3367backed McConico	10c	145.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3916…53c7backed McConico	14c	145.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	38%19 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ab…482ebacked McConico	12c	141.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked McConico	16c	132.55$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked McConico	18c	128.29$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	223	34.1%76 W · 147 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed McConico	11c	114.66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	377	54.6%206 W · 171 L	+19.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96a6…f8aebacked McConico	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc749…e803backed McConico	11c	99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae3…47ccbacked McConico	11c	98.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc620…8cbfbacked McConico	11c	96.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Susurkaev	78c	80$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.25	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde50…cf46backed McConico	13c	77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Susurkaev	75c	66.67$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.67	158	39.2%62 W · 96 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed McConico	21c	49.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…e0f8backed Susurkaev	78c	39.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Susurkaev	78c	38.09$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.21	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	+10.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90d0…e7b5backed Susurkaev	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.1	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC 322: McConico vs. Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims)this page
Fight to Go the Distance?No won
O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
Will Baisangur Susurkaev win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Will the fight be won by submission?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC 322: McConico vs. Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event