TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$486,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$495,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $486,816 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d1a…0df6backed Washington Nationals53c180,652$95,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,454.115451.9%80 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics47c68,252$31,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,839.134,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e94…5ba1backed Athletics45c41,983$18,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,892.4746949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Nationals54c29,236$15,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,448.5692054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Washington Nationals51c27,682$14,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,564.1477053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Washington Nationals54c26,138$14,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,023.675244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Athletics46c24,744$11,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,382.153050%15 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics45c20,880$9,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,469.9110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics45c20,806$9,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,281.792,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics48c16,536$7,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,877.5811,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Athletics49c16,468$8,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,069.3271650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Washington Nationals55c16,080$8,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,2361,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Athletics49c15,000$7,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,299.9948451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics47c13,475$6,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,279.084,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee2…e88fbacked Athletics7c13,016$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.276643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Washington Nationals55c10,910$6,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,909.516747.9%80 W · 87 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Athletics46c10,870$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00034942.7%149 W · 200 L-19.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Athletics47c10,175$4,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,782.2328553.3%152 W · 133 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Washington Nationals55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Athletics47c9,282$4,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,393.129147.1%137 W · 154 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Athletics47c9,060$4,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,303.231,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics41c7,140$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,920.666,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics48c6,422$3,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,055.923,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Athletics46c6,038$2,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,777.3519546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Athletics0c5,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics47c5,092$2,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,367.876,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb5…d57abacked Athletics48c4,639$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.7221644.9%97 W · 119 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50d0…a6fcbacked Washington Nationals55c4,353$2,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.733354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f1…b325backed Washington Nationals55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8002669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Athletics45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8008151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Athletics46c3,878$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,78498149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Athletics18c3,518$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.3495045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Washington Nationals77c3,461$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.0311548.7%56 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics47c3,232$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.248,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Athletics47c3,199$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.3477647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Washington Nationals54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3805433.3%18 W · 36 L-9.2wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Athletics15c2,942$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.721,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Washington Nationals52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20019250%96 W · 96 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Athletics45c2,478$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.352,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics34c2,236$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.198,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Athletics45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.94252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dd7…89aabacked Washington Nationals55c2,162$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.964951%25 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Athletics46c2,145$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.321,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd47d…322bbacked Athletics49c2,100$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02913552.6%71 W · 64 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics47c2,048$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.322,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals76c2,019$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.184,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics48c2,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.035,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd255…4676backed Athletics47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9407852.6%41 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Athletics46c1,957$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9964452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Washington Nationals53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.7926245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Athletics34c1,676$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.0479442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Athletics46c1,536$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.421,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Washington Nationals54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69061947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Washington Nationals55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67586653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Athletics49c1,403$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.6528850.3%145 W · 143 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d8…da40backed Athletics11c1,384$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Athletics46c1,086$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5685952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics47c1,062$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.382,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Athletics48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Athletics45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45016848.2%81 W · 87 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Athletics47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47029046.6%135 W · 155 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Athletics46c928.2$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.9756253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Washington Nationals54c926.85$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.3536048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Washington Nationals62c910.76$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.17850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Washington Nationals55c887.11$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.28648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Athletics46c870.16$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40051545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Athletics46c847$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.6269453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Washington Nationals55c838.99$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.5544953.7%241 W · 208 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Athletics24c812.07$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.960043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2002…a75ebacked Washington Nationals54c810.17$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.3615751.6%81 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb81…1f15backed Athletics47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37612448.4%60 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Washington Nationals65c786.21$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.791,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed Washington Nationals52c777.25$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.2612244.3%54 W · 68 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed Washington Nationals55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.276749.3%33 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics42c654.96$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.991,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc37e…b8eabacked Athletics46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Washington Nationals54c592$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.321,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Athletics45c573.74$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.0325248.8%123 W · 129 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Athletics41c559.87$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.4288046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed Athletics48c533.01$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.2113054.6%71 W · 59 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals68c528.67$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.638,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Athletics13c521.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3110625.5%27 W · 79 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Athletics27c518.52$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407037.1%26 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2e…ed1cbacked Washington Nationals53c501.27$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed Washington Nationals52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24027357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Athletics47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23530647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf221…649fbacked Washington Nationals50c488.08$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.32564%16 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Athletics49c452.73$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8433852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Athletics48c451.55$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3329752.5%156 W · 141 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals60c443.2$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.185,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Washington Nationals55c439.2$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6437052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1b5…7e9abacked Athletics46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006946.4%32 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Athletics48c432$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.361450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Athletics47c414$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9654642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Washington Nationals49c408.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.715639.1%61 W · 95 L-11.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Washington Nationals52c385$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.81,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23e…e4a3backed Washington Nationals55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6411750.4%59 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Washington Nationals55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6432157%183 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Athletics47c361.57$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9419950.3%100 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.