Premier League · resolved market
Will Fulham vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b58029014ffa60159411babff41b6c28cd5864caaeb022d5d2e640d1fb7da24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3698…1580backed Yes | 28c | 3,800$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,891$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…70a7backed No | 72c | 2,034$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…0832backed No | 72c | 1,711$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 66c | 1,638$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.12 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 32c | 1,558$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 71c | 1,388$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.98 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 49c | 1,024$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.87 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 59c | 941.55$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 36c | 848.62$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.99 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 71c | 696.18$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.89 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 43c | 558.68$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.94 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 71c | 520.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.3 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8a…7f5bbacked No | 73c | 510.96$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 67c | 503.94$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.3 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…04a7backed No | 72c | 493.98$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…85f4backed Yes | 29c | 434.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…83bcbacked Yes | 29c | 430.94$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…a424backed Yes | 29c | 427.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…685dbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbff…6250backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 317.96$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 38c | 282.41$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…f263backed Yes | 29c | 280.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…ea74backed No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…e993backed No | 73c | 275.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 23c | 272.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 71c | 271.24$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 73c | 268.62$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 28c | 254.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 70c | 230.88$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 71c | 187.37$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 44c | 157.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe815…93f4backed Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 65c | 139.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yes | 38c | 105.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed No | 50c | 104.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…585fbacked No | 73c | 103.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…e4bdbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…302fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…a5dbbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b7…af8bbacked Yes | 29c | 86.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7530…311bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 30cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 29c | 69.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…3c96backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Yes | 29c | 52.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 68c | 47.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…dc09backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…1ad8backed Yes | 36c | 34.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…dac5backed Yes | 32c | 33.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0c…ddacbacked Yes | 65c | 23.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Yes | 63c | 19.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf611…3dccbacked No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…b133backed No | 72c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fulham vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Fulham win on 2025-01-26?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.