Champions League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6d9371fffc399b888a4f14b0187587edb26f97e55cb0aa826f2131da10304e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a47…f940backed Yes | 25c | 10,001$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…e1c7backed No | 75c | 10,001$7,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…b9f0backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…7334backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…569cbacked Yes | 25c | 9,996$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d79…a3dbbacked Yes | 25c | 9,993$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…6466backed No | 75c | 9,680$7,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…26bbbacked Yes | 25c | 9,680$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…6077backed Yes | 26c | 8,137$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,111.74 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +186.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed No | 74c | 7,989$5,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.24 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 24c | 4,041$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 77c | 3,757$2,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.82 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 79c | 3,459$2,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.35 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 22c | 3,407$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 75c | 2,073$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.3 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 76c | 2,065$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.82 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes | 25c | 2,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 77c | 1,952$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.22 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 26c | 1,525$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 11c | 1,358$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.55 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…b38abacked No | 77c | 973.19$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…8714backed Yes | 26c | 732.27$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 22c | 617.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 74c | 595.99$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 74c | 554.79$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 445.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 8c | 313.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 262.92$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 75c | 262.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe7…78f7backed Yes | 27c | 248.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 24c | 238.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…10a0backed Yes | 25c | 226.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 26c | 221.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…7c3abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Yes | 23c | 186.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed No | 75c | 169.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 74c | 139.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 26c | 118.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…0834backed No | 76c | 103.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a08…8630backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eca…4bc9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Yes | 24c | 92.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…db92backed No | 76c | 83.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbf…9447backed Yes | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 72.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 21c | 70.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Yes | 26c | 69.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609b…c208backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…501ebacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…8fd1backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…515fbacked Yes | 22c | 49.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 78c | 49.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…7a95backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed No | 77c | 30.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3266…9390backed No | 76c | 27.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-15?Yes won
- Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.