Tennis · resolved market

Brisbane International: Brandon Nakashima vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb204d02f8b7a81e094471862724599b97535a272abb71d0680744c1075a974

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Nakashimaof Nakashima, Fokina
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,897 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7d07…0351backed Fokina	21c	8,984$1,907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,906.58	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nakashima	67c	4,554$3,062 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,492.06	2,865	44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Fokina	61c	4,057$2,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,470.24	138	52.9%73 W · 65 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nakashima	57c	3,267$1,872 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,395.88	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Nakashima	39c	2,544$992 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,552.13	144	50.7%73 W · 71 L	+6.9wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Fokina	61c	1,829$1,113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,113.38	92	64.1%59 W · 33 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Fokina	62c	1,826$1,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,138.61	718	57.7%414 W · 304 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nakashima	49c	1,576$770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$805.53	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nakashima	63c	1,385$879 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.92	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Nakashima	40c	1,289$513 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$775.1	279	44.1%123 W · 156 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Fokina	62c	1,052$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	352	47.2%166 W · 186 L	-23.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Nakashima	47c	1,037$487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550.21	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Nakashima	46c	1,017$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$552.66	1,655	50.1%829 W · 826 L	+30.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Fokina	30c	999.99$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	191	31.4%60 W · 131 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Fokina	63c	793.65$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	61	59%36 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Nakashima	39c	619.41$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$374.86	441	25.4%112 W · 329 L	-11.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb74…1a99backed Fokina	35c	599.99$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209	96	30.2%29 W · 67 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nakashima	74c	574.73$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.01	2,068	34.9%721 W · 1,347 L	-44.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Nakashima	40c	527.95$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.37	930	55.8%519 W · 411 L	+23.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Fokina	62c	500$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	138	26.1%36 W · 102 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Nakashima	40c	500$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	220	21.8%48 W · 172 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Nakashima	39c	353$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.33	1,028	33.6%345 W · 683 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Fokina	60c	333.33$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb539…7c32backed Fokina	61c	314.74$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.99	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ff…f3f3backed Nakashima	42c	300.42$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.42	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd420…01fcbacked Fokina	60c	283.27$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.96	131	58%76 W · 55 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nakashima	35c	250$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.5	6,720	36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L	-95.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1021…e648backed Fokina	61c	245.9$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Fokina	41c	244.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	191	29.8%57 W · 134 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03d8…c2e7backed Nakashima	48c	241.81$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.81	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Nakashima	40c	204.06$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.44	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+3.9wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Fokina	60c	200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Nakashima	40c	199.98$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.99	228	40.4%92 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5db0…73f1backed Fokina	60c	185.64$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.71	165	58.8%97 W · 68 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9da…06eebacked Fokina	60c	177.28$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.37	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbaa…59b8backed Fokina	62c	161.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.78	324	48.1%156 W · 168 L	-11.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Fokina	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	459	9.6%44 W · 415 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Fokina	59c	126.43$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.1	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8173…1054backed Nakashima	40c	125$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8061…9eb5backed Fokina	61c	124.79$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.12	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Nakashima	42c	119.64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.64	174	32.2%56 W · 118 L	-15.1wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-22%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4291…b6bdbacked Nakashima	42c	117.29$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.4	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x176e…8f96backed Fokina	59c	104.29$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.69	178	63.5%113 W · 65 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd951…f30bbacked Nakashima	43c	100.81$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.81	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54fd…4ac3backed Fokina	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba06…0004backed Fokina	38c	100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	151	51%77 W · 74 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Fokina	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	102	8.8%9 W · 93 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-31%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Nakashima	35c	100$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	186	44.6%83 W · 103 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ea…9bedbacked Fokina	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.23per pick	35cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf8b…bff8backed Nakashima	38c	100$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	372	38.2%142 W · 230 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Fokina	61c	92.79$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.6	189	57.7%109 W · 80 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fokina	58c	86.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.93	1,809	43.8%793 W · 1,016 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Fokina	60c	83.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7163…3601backed Fokina	51c	81.85$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.74	102	52%53 W · 49 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Nakashima	64c	70.31$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.31	186	63.4%118 W · 68 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Fokina	44c	69.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.17	281	39.1%110 W · 171 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nakashima	53c	65.71$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.89	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e2…9ff7backed Fokina	21c	59.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64fc…9b30backed Fokina	61c	57.38$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	38	65.8%25 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb1…8008backed Fokina	61c	55.74$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	62cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c60…2227backed Nakashima	38c	55$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.1	105	32.4%34 W · 71 L	-10.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d66…0e16backed Fokina	60c	50.07$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18ed…04cbbacked Fokina	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e5…1c91backed Fokina	61c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	238	51.7%123 W · 115 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Fokina	51c	47.01$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.18	2,145	54.2%1,162 W · 983 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2f…409fbacked Fokina	60c	38.22$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.93	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nakashima	40c	36.12$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	1,245	33.9%422 W · 823 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b96…32b3backed Fokina	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	66cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Fokina	60c	33.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	398	50%199 W · 199 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Nakashima	39c	33.2$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.25	244	48.8%119 W · 125 L	+17.1wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6891…4b0bbacked Fokina	60c	33.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Fokina	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	497	49.9%248 W · 249 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Fokina	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac0…63c8backed Fokina	61c	32.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	67cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a16…de20backed Fokina	62c	32.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	168	56%94 W · 74 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26ec…da98backed Fokina	60c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	111	65.8%73 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Fokina	62c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Fokina	62c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	106	22.6%24 W · 82 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe759…3648backed Nakashima	64c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	155	51.6%80 W · 75 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked Nakashima	39c	26.69$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.28	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Fokina	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd32…8580backed Nakashima	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb815…342fbacked Nakashima	78c	24.09$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.27	45	66.7%30 W · 15 L	+4.7wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+11%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc7…55f6backed Nakashima	78c	24.09$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.27	115	53%61 W · 54 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Fokina	58c	21.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.35	248	46%114 W · 134 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d11…6096backed Fokina	62c	20.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	63cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Fokina	62c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	132	52.3%69 W · 63 L	+12.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb02…b642backed Fokina	62c	19.35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	63	74.6%47 W · 16 L	+5.4wins	+0.09per pick	66cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Brisbane International: Brandon Nakashima vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinathis page
Nakashima vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs FokinaNakashima won
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Nakashima won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Brisbane International: Brandon Nakashima vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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