NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb27a13710eec5b39e5c0d298ad6fe0c3c0a476eb711f7b08728cfcc8a5e047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Spurs, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Spurs | 16c | 2,702$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.18 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Nuggets | 37c | 1,877$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.91 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,843$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.1 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Nuggets | 58c | 1,831$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.87 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 14c | 1,601$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Spurs | 41c | 1,280$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.05 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Spurs | 48c | 1,073$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.37 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Spurs | 49c | 806.02$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.32 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Spurs | 66c | 538.53$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.46 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Spurs | 64c | 500$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Nuggets | 57c | 425.96$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.33 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Nuggets | 34c | 424.28$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.02 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 49c | 371.66$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Nuggets | 80c | 370.5$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Nuggets | 33c | 323.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked Spurs | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Spurs | 44c | 319.62$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.52 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…3684backed Nuggets | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Spurs | 19c | 250.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Nuggets | 50c | 223.1$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.55 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Nuggets | 50c | 195.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 298 | 48%143 W · 155 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…0ac2backed Nuggets | 38c | 180.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…8c53backed Nuggets | 55c | 177.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Spurs | 66c | 131.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ae…9ba6backed Spurs | 9c | 127.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Spurs | 16c | 123.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Nuggets | 50c | 118.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Spurs | 21c | 111.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Nuggets | 35c | 109.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Spurs | 18c | 105.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Spurs | 68c | 96.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Spurs | 65c | 84.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs | 65c | 82.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Nuggets | 50c | 67.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 423 | 35.9%152 W · 271 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Spurs | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets | 27c | 56.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Spurs | 72c | 49.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Spurs | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…340bbacked Nuggets | 34c | 48.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Spurs | 53c | 39.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Nuggets | 27c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Spurs | 57c | 31.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Spurs | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Spurs | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Spurs | 57c | 29.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Spurs | 57c | 24.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Spurs | 67c | 24.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb510…762bbacked Spurs | 64c | 22.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Spurs | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Nuggets | 53c | 19.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Spurs | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.