NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00626612390e116ff29aacb15f6db0787f66678b34f34964a54d5b1b450c2fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,680$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 2,274$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…ff17backed Over | 50c | 1,940$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 48c | 1,356$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.03 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,073$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.73 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 1,015$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.37 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 860.73$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.76 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 52c | 740.89$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.63 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 21c | 572.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…8aa8backed Under | 48c | 179.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Under | 48c | 150.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 146.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 51c | 95.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 47c | 78.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 74.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Over | 53c | 66.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 48c | 63.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 47c | 63.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 49c | 56.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 54.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 49c | 49.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under | 51c | 44.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Over | 53c | 43.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ce…9e59backed Over | 49c | 43.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…df72backed Under | 32c | 36.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 51c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 53c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 68c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 68c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 77c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.