NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e41c6d139bae5ce5c4d7b07bd1e7d2cd46c4872ecfdc7099ff6398177a1911b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Spurs, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Spurs | 52c | 1,827$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.83 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Nuggets | 48c | 1,476$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.58 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Spurs | 59c | 1,231$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.77 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Nuggets | 42c | 999.93$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.96 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…650dbacked Nuggets | 40c | 951.36$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Spurs | 68c | 850.65$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.55 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Nuggets | 23c | 622.03$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.96 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Spurs | 64c | 550.9$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.56 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Nuggets | 6c | 523.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.41 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 29c | 507.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Nuggets | 23c | 444.74$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.45 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Nuggets | 29c | 372.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.84 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Spurs | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d60abacked Spurs | 33c | 291.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Spurs | 61c | 279.2$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.1 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Nuggets | 26c | 275.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.83 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…2245backed Spurs | 56c | 240.03$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Spurs | 67c | 170.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Spurs | 77c | 165.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets | 7c | 157.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Nuggets | 45c | 146.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…2fa4backed Spurs | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Spurs | 77c | 130.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…8804backed Spurs | 51c | 130.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Spurs | 45c | 120.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…c218backed Nuggets | 35c | 109.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…9e33backed Spurs | 77c | 102.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Spurs | 55c | 102.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ba…67e9backed Nuggets | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…be5bbacked Spurs | 80c | 98.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Nuggets | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…ab75backed Spurs | 56c | 95.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Spurs | 24c | 95.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Nuggets | 23c | 95.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Nuggets | 29c | 93.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Nuggets | 27c | 89.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Nuggets | 26c | 86.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Spurs | 35c | 85.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb0…b6f5backed Spurs | 54c | 77.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 37c | 73.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Spurs | 73c | 72.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…31efbacked Nuggets | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Spurs | 70c | 70.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Nuggets | 24c | 68.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Nuggets | 35c | 68.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Nuggets | 26c | 66.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Spurs | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 443 | 47.2%209 W · 234 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Nuggets | 23c | 63.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Nuggets | 26c | 59.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Nuggets | 49c | 55.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Spurs | 72c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Spurs | 76c | 49.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…8cf8backed Spurs | 55c | 49.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Nuggets | 24c | 49.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Nuggets | 43c | 47.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Nuggets | 23c | 46.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Spurs | 71c | 45.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Spurs | 57c | 43.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Spurs | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Nuggets | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Spurs | 55c | 35.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…faddbacked Spurs | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Spurs | 44c | 33.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Nuggets | 75c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Nuggets | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Nuggets | 80c | 29.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Spurs | 77c | 29.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…885abacked Spurs | 56c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…cad0backed Spurs | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Spurs | 77c | 25.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nuggets | 70c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Spurs | 74c | 21.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Spurs | 60c | 20.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Spurs | 67c | 20.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Spurs | 70c | 20.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Spurs | 72c | 16.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Spurs | 72c | 15.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.