NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbda4458270174282c098799d270869f24328675755c962a88a6af91886d3e77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Under | 33c | 7,963$2,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.32 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 22c | 5,452$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.69 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 2,994$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 42c | 2,478$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.28 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 1,326$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.59 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 56c | 1,174$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.88 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…bcfebacked Over | 55c | 957.11$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 749.43$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.24 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 70c | 710.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.95 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 497.04$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 75c | 381.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 37c | 322.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Over | 58c | 292.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64c…c82cbacked Under | 12c | 283.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 263.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 72c | 253.8$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 75c | 253.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 44c | 233.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 52c | 206.25$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 42c | 198.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 71c | 183.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 72c | 172.06$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…21e7backed Under | 28c | 137.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 62c | 110.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 59c | 104.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 57c | 103.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 44c | 101.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ba…67e9backed Over | 70c | 99.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 39c | 95.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 76c | 93.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 92.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 45c | 90.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 45c | 90.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 71c | 85.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Under | 28c | 85.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…df72backed Over | 41c | 83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 75c | 81.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 56c | 80.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 72c | 79.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 52c | 68.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 52c | 68.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 47c | 66.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 73c | 66.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 469 | 59.1%277 W · 192 L | +28.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 61c | 64.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 34c | 62.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6258…b225backed Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 49c | 49.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 49c | 44.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Under | 68c | 43.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Over | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 41c | 39.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 39.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 73c | 37.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 34c | 36.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…bbf6backed Over | 41c | 29.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 40c | 27.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 27.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…57c7backed Over | 63c | 24.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 70c | 24.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 62 | 77.4%48 W · 14 L | +13.1wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 58c | 23.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 57c | 23.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Over | 72c | 23.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…bf94backed Over | 79c | 20.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Under | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Under | 56c | 19.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 77c | 17.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.