NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70977ca95d1ef54f3c7f10e1d94529a5c45af32828d494b5f4346273f424f98f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Spurs, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x031a…50b7backed Spurs | 55c | 9,963$5,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,507.67 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 43c | 6,320$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Spurs | 47c | 5,520$2,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,588.56 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 3,964$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.21 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Nuggets | 43c | 3,750$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,137.59 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Spurs | 55c | 2,521$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.64 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Spurs | 29c | 1,939$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.89 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Nuggets | 43c | 1,909$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.29 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Spurs | 45c | 1,275$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.74 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Nuggets | 39c | 1,235$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.4 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nuggets | 58c | 1,227$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.26 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs | 56c | 887.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.77 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Spurs | 60c | 570.45$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.57 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…d31abacked Spurs | 12c | 458.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Spurs | 55c | 443.54$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.3 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nuggets | 45c | 389.4$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.17 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Nuggets | 78c | 378.8$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Spurs | 46c | 376.86$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.81 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Spurs | 5c | 366.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Spurs | 5c | 350.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Nuggets | 53c | 306.05$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Spurs | 42c | 292.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Spurs | 60c | 280$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Nuggets | 57c | 279.1$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Spurs | 53c | 262.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.01 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Nuggets | 45c | 253.6$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.51 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Spurs | 61c | 252.96$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…a3a4backed Nuggets | 41c | 238.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.37 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Spurs | 54c | 229.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Spurs | 58c | 186.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Spurs | 56c | 177.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…5042backed Spurs | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Spurs | 57c | 150.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Spurs | 61c | 112.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Spurs | 59c | 101.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Spurs | 57c | 100.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Spurs | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Nuggets | 67c | 99.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 170 | 54.1%92 W · 78 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets | 42c | 94.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Spurs | 56c | 89.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Spurs | 56c | 86.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Nuggets | 63c | 84.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Spurs | 19c | 77.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cd…da0dbacked Spurs | 56c | 56.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Spurs | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Spurs | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Spurs | 58c | 48.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5478…cf08backed Spurs | 39c | 47.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Nuggets | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Nuggets | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Spurs | 37c | 44.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…340bbacked Spurs | 54c | 42.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Spurs | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Spurs | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 257 | 52.5%135 W · 122 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Spurs | 28c | 37.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Spurs | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 373 | 44.2%165 W · 208 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets | 44c | 33.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…b5a0backed Nuggets | 45c | 32.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…3b30backed Nuggets | 64c | 32.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Spurs | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Nuggets | 40c | 28.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Nuggets | 47c | 28.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Nuggets | 41c | 27.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Spurs | 56c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Nuggets | 56c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…88b0backed Spurs | 61c | 17.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. SpursNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.