TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,667

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,164 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c501.54$249 inWon+$252.689,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over52c467.21$243 inWon+$224.1868838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb18d…3464backed Under44c436.04$193 inLost-$193.325160.8%31 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over70c357$250 inWon+$107.165872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under37c285.84$106 inLost-$105.91,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f6c…df05backed Under68c210.44$143 inLost-$1437256.9%41 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under30c176.06$53 inLost-$52.858,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Under65c107.68$70 inLost-$69.942348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over64c104.38$67 inWon+$37.581,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed Over78c100$78 inWon+$222751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bfd…f319backed Under47c96.82$46 inLost-$45.5111143.2%48 W · 63 L-9.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa367…5376backed Under43c89.11$39 inLost-$38.65944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7312…df72backed Over39c87.4$34 inWon+$53.3810523.8%25 W · 80 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over32c68.56$22 inWon+$46.623,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under47c49.06$23 inLost-$23.062,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked Under24c47.72$11 inLost-$11.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under31c38.1$12 inLost-$11.8163746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Over67c32.81$22 inWon+$10.7944551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under45c29$13 inLost-$13.0589850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over69c28.77$20 inWon+$8.781,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45a8…82e1backed Under71c27.57$20 inLost-$19.6610257.8%59 W · 43 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over53c23.84$13 inWon+$11.21,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Over77c19.39$15 inWon+$4.4633159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.