TailMyPicks
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUSTECof Leo Team, ex-RUSTEC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,502 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Leo Team46c6,963$3,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,235.0377052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Leo Team44c4,062$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.367951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked ex-RUSTEC46c4,004$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.532348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ex-RUSTEC56c3,711$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.661,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1047…9036backed ex-RUSTEC53c3,375$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.251450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed ex-RUSTEC57c2,706$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.913647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked ex-RUSTEC57c2,640$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.1914052.1%73 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed ex-RUSTEC57c2,582$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.6717249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Leo Team43c1,628$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020854.8%114 W · 94 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Leo Team46c1,612$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.91,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Leo Team53c1,559$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.152,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb68…9bf0backed Leo Team10c1,520$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3860%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Leo Team39c1,400$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Leo Team43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5161,02052.2%532 W · 488 L+26.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Leo Team33c1,141$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.025,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed ex-RUSTEC53c1,099$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.5322941.9%96 W · 133 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Leo Team46c805.49$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.5361654.9%338 W · 278 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…869ebacked ex-RUSTEC53c791$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.773652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Leo Team22c775.42$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.262,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked ex-RUSTEC18c760.01$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.686336.5%23 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Leo Team56c708.74$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.2972645.6%331 W · 395 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Leo Team43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019857.1%113 W · 85 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6da…fb9abacked Leo Team46c659.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked ex-RUSTEC55c600$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27018350.8%93 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Leo Team42c599.97$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.9952150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Leo Team42c591.91$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.649952.3%261 W · 238 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d7…bbf6backed ex-RUSTEC73c539.24$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.0319468.6%133 W · 61 L+25.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ex-RUSTEC63c536.48$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.763,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Leo Team38c524.53$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.987,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f4a…afd7backed Leo Team48c520.47$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25022940.2%92 W · 137 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed ex-RUSTEC53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2353852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd1…864bbacked ex-RUSTEC54c474.9$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.342958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd9e…8f17backed ex-RUSTEC54c470$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8d…6db9backed ex-RUSTEC55c460$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed Leo Team44c405.32$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3470032%224 W · 476 L-45.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f0c…5ad0backed Leo Team17c361.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010643.4%46 W · 60 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked ex-RUSTEC49c321.3$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4322455.8%125 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed ex-RUSTEC56c312.5$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.548654.5%265 W · 221 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Leo Team68c303.73$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6343457.1%248 W · 186 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked ex-RUSTEC53c300$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.510136.6%37 W · 64 L-10.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde4b…1222backed Leo Team44c299.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.995052%26 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Leo Team43c290.52$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8240839.2%160 W · 248 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed ex-RUSTEC55c288$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3134750.1%174 W · 173 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf404…daaabacked ex-RUSTEC55c278$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.110933%36 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Leo Team13c267.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Leo Team59c266.22$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8753055.5%294 W · 236 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Leo Team62c266.01$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.755,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Leo Team46c264.98$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.251,39752.4%732 W · 665 L+30.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed ex-RUSTEC53c252.88$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.545442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Leo Team47c251$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7723847.9%114 W · 124 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd8…d64cbacked ex-RUSTEC63c243.09$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.241266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed ex-RUSTEC42c240.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.2428637.8%108 W · 178 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed ex-RUSTEC52c231.45$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.12050%10 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+73.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa005…abb1backed ex-RUSTEC56c224.7$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8219150.3%96 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x956d…b750backed Leo Team50c200.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006747.8%32 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked ex-RUSTEC50c182.39$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7429854.7%163 W · 135 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ce…11a2backed ex-RUSTEC25c176.77$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.814065%26 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ex-RUSTEC60c175.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.665,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Leo Team48c175$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.123,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Leo Team48c175$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.32,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Leo Team48c175$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Leo Team46c164.55$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0216945%76 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Leo Team45c162$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7839540.3%159 W · 236 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ex-RUSTEC55c154.82$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.872,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked ex-RUSTEC56c151$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4426550.6%134 W · 131 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73bb…a7d5backed ex-RUSTEC67c146.27$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.271952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Leo Team44c136.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019147.1%90 W · 101 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked Leo Team42c135.8$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.945536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Leo Team61c125.75$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.151942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91e…dc10backed ex-RUSTEC58c118.26$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.677354.8%40 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Leo Team48c115.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.038265.9%54 W · 28 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaf76…ffeabacked Leo Team48c115$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2723037.8%87 W · 143 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked ex-RUSTEC54c111.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.114946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fcd…fbfcbacked ex-RUSTEC50c109$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.51776.5%13 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick51cpaid+42.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Leo Team42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,32544.1%584 W · 741 L+44.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1110…ea61backed Leo Team35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3513163.4%83 W · 48 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66da…69b0backed Leo Team45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4528042.5%119 W · 161 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed ex-RUSTEC55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456953.6%37 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ex-RUSTEC64c99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.762,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e1d…cecdbacked ex-RUSTEC55c98.18$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.182948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Leo Team48c97.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.395756.1%32 W · 25 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x96f9…6c15backed Leo Team55c91.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507156.3%40 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed Leo Team40c88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1512533.6%42 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed ex-RUSTEC53c86.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.447953.2%42 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked ex-RUSTEC39c85.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9936540%146 W · 219 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Leo Team55c82.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7581551.7%421 W · 394 L+26.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1431…94d0backed Leo Team46c81.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.57048.6%34 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked ex-RUSTEC53c80.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1781744.7%365 W · 452 L-2.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Leo Team48c73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0414460.4%87 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked ex-RUSTEC53c69.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7192145.8%422 W · 499 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e2…5405backed Leo Team44c68.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.272352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+59.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked ex-RUSTEC60c66.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.931,14254.4%621 W · 521 L-4.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1273…8eddbacked Leo Team46c64.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8921857.3%125 W · 93 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x023f…4247backed ex-RUSTEC53c62.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.55580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8213…711cbacked Leo Team65c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.25865.5%38 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Leo Team26c58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.352,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed ex-RUSTEC33c56.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2635841.6%149 W · 209 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0595…83d8backed ex-RUSTEC61c53.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5427…94c0backed ex-RUSTEC56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.573360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcce1…49c7backed Leo Team44c53.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.735147.9%168 W · 183 L-16.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.