TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ugo Humbertof Justin Engel, Ugo Humbert
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$519,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$676,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $519,304 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Justin Engel12c53,670$6,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,685.838,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Justin Engel9c23,823$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.178,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Justin Engel14c13,183$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.744,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56b…ac88backed Justin Engel13c10,264$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.6611438.6%44 W · 70 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Justin Engel30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004339.5%17 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Justin Engel15c9,133$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.397,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Justin Engel14c8,785$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.016,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Justin Engel13c8,403$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.3666139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x288c…3641backed Justin Engel30c6,731$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009430.9%29 W · 65 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Ugo Humbert74c5,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3006165.6%40 W · 21 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+39.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Justin Engel20c3,429$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.931,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x763f…81e9backed Ugo Humbert76c3,310$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.422759.3%16 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Justin Engel17c3,143$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.5311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Justin Engel13c3,121$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.574,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x708b…7c3bbacked Ugo Humbert70c3,000$2,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Justin Engel38c2,711$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.4939238.8%152 W · 240 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Ugo Humbert77c2,600$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.9914162.4%88 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e93…eb10backed Ugo Humbert78c2,564$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.14971.4%35 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Justin Engel38c2,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.9924643.9%108 W · 138 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Justin Engel24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.921,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Ugo Humbert71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Justin Engel12c1,727$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037421.9%82 W · 292 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Justin Engel27c1,709$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.3280341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Justin Engel32c1,504$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.461,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Justin Engel17c1,459$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.23,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Justin Engel22c1,383$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Justin Engel15c1,331$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3585624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Justin Engel3c1,323$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6212836.7%47 W · 81 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Justin Engel29c1,247$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.2410443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Justin Engel24c1,189$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9153843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Ugo Humbert74c1,151$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.238537.6%32 W · 53 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Ugo Humbert63c1,090$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.8518741.2%77 W · 110 L+0.9wins0.00per pick41cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Justin Engel16c1,078$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4757447.7%274 W · 300 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Justin Engel1c1,038$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.381,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Ugo Humbert78c1,026$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.6450458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Ugo Humbert76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24019452.1%101 W · 93 L-13.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb10e…beedbacked Justin Engel33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Justin Engel23c999.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Justin Engel20c946.99$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.994,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Ugo Humbert77c903$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.9522667.7%153 W · 73 L+1.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Justin Engel23c900.76$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7619339.4%76 W · 117 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba06…0004backed Ugo Humbert78c845$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.915151%77 W · 74 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Justin Engel28c839.83$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.5911154.1%60 W · 51 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf89d…6f39backed Ugo Humbert79c752.72$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.722560%15 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Ugo Humbert67c750$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.4945457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Justin Engel19c742.14$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.598,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0574…3ee0backed Justin Engel8c725.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Ugo Humbert68c689.65$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.6954541.7%227 W · 318 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Justin Engel31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019626%51 W · 145 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf753…bcfebacked Justin Engel15c642.28$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8853736.9%198 W · 339 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Ugo Humbert73c604.11$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.1153655.4%297 W · 239 L-28.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c6e…542dbacked Ugo Humbert68c518.21$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.8319756.3%111 W · 86 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Ugo Humbert74c500$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12811149.5%55 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa263…6cf0backed Justin Engel10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017538.3%67 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Ugo Humbert71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14548941.1%201 W · 288 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Justin Engel25c498.63$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6626049.2%128 W · 132 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Justin Engel7c483.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3575312.2%92 W · 661 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Ugo Humbert65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.5460158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7067…38dbbacked Justin Engel11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508347%39 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Justin Engel13c450$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4519740.6%80 W · 117 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Justin Engel21c420.71$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3927132.1%87 W · 184 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Justin Engel35c417.71$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.659,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc905…850bbacked Ugo Humbert61c409.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.8435755.5%198 W · 159 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Justin Engel20c379.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.682,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Ugo Humbert76c371.55$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5584968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Ugo Humbert76c359.98$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.892462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Justin Engel12c350$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Justin Engel22c331.78$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.722,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Justin Engel32c330$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.628947.8%138 W · 151 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Justin Engel14c305.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4823942.7%102 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked Justin Engel33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004332.6%14 W · 29 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Justin Engel24c300.4$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.142611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c06…db24backed Justin Engel27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b05…b3b4backed Justin Engel14c281.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb575…d35bbacked Justin Engel26c279.33$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7430235.1%106 W · 196 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Justin Engel35c267.35$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.454634.4%188 W · 358 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0378…030bbacked Ugo Humbert78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4110764.5%69 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Ugo Humbert75c254.35$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.593,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Justin Engel12c250$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2567838.3%260 W · 418 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Justin Engel23c247.27$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8268935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Justin Engel25c230.92$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7351644.8%231 W · 285 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf41…ac19backed Ugo Humbert69c223.19$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.193100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Justin Engel11c222$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4256744.6%253 W · 314 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8356…d6cbbacked Ugo Humbert68c220.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.593050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Ugo Humbert64c219.5$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0723159.3%137 W · 94 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Ugo Humbert77c210.02$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1239845.5%181 W · 217 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…7a1bbacked Justin Engel12c209.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.337512%9 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf92f…1a35backed Justin Engel23c208.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4816018.1%29 W · 131 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8048…a602backed Justin Engel20c205.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0719568.2%133 W · 62 L+19.5wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+11.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Justin Engel12c204.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3192145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Justin Engel16c204.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4855243.3%239 W · 313 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa363…46c8backed Justin Engel14c203.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4822821.1%48 W · 180 L-0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Justin Engel27c201.34$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.14,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Justin Engel22c200.02$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb897…e44ebacked Justin Engel10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021641.7%90 W · 126 L-0.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Ugo Humbert78c192.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3184963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…eda7backed Justin Engel27c184.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041846.2%193 W · 225 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98bd…8a55backed Ugo Humbert71c166.2$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.28845.5%40 W · 48 L-9.5wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Justin Engel24c165.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.751,51037.7%569 W · 941 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Ugo Humbert73c163.55$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1654249.3%267 W · 275 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.